The Increased Use of the Shift in Baseball and its Effects on Fantasy Baseball

Joe Maddon never has been a traditional manager.  Remember, this is the guy who once intentionally walked a man with the bases loaded!

SHIFTY: Mark Teixeira has seen a drop in batting average for the past three seasons, perhaps due in part to the increased use of defensive shifts against him.

But, this year, it’s getting a little nutty in over-achieving Tampa Bay.  The New York Times ran a story last week that detailed the shifting prowess of Maddon — a manager that has shifted his defense more than 150 times already this season, including 29 times in the opening series against the Yankees.  Maddon shifts his defense whether the other team is hitting righties or lefties.  He shifts his defense whether his team is playing the best teams in the American League, the Rangers or the Orioles, or the worst team, the Angels Twins.  Heck, he even shifts his defense when the opposing hitter is Ryan Raburn — a righty hitting .128 on the year.  The Rays have even figured they had enough data to warrant a shift against second year players like Kyle Seager of the Mariners and Eric Thames of the Blue Jays.  This is a team that just doesn’t shift against Big Papi.

And, its working.  The Rays are hitting .245 as team, yet battling for first place, as they always seem to do.  That’s despite the fact that the Red Sox and Yankees, at the bottom of the upside-down AL East, are hitting .275 and .277 respectively this year.  It may be a little more than a coincidence that the only team the Rays trail in the AL East are the Orioles — the team that has shifted the second most times thus far in 2012.  Those two teams are playing this weekend in the tectonic battle of the shifting American League East.

Come on, I hear you.  Its the Rays and Orioles pitching staffs that have got them to the top of the division often described as baseball’s most difficult.  Sure, that may be true, but you have to think that the shift and the pitching staff of a team whose #1 starter is Jake Arrietta (5.05 ERA last year) may be benefiting somewhat from their managers’ use of the now popular defensive shift.  Those two things must be intertwined at some point.

It must be working.  According to John Dewan of Baseball Info Solutions, the Rays shift, and other things its wacky manager does (not including dressing like pimps on road trips), has already saved the Rays 28 runs this season.  Its especially impressive when you consider saving 10 runs equals one more win, according to those Sabermetrics dudes.

Shifting Effects on Fantasy Stats of Players Like Mark Teixeira and Corey Hart

One player who has clearly had his fantasy baseball numbers hurt by the increasing use of the shift is Mark Teixeira.  Even Yankees’ hitting coach Kevin Long admits it:

“He’s just not real good at it,” Long said of Teixeira’s ability to hit the other way. “He doesn’t have a good feel for it.”  In fact, every time Texeira tried to go the other way against the Rays last year, he hit weak grounders to Evan Longoria whose job it was to cover the entire left side.

And, its not for lack of trying in having Long work with Teixeira, but “we’ve kind of hit a dead end with it,” said Long in referring to Texeira’s attempts to learn to go the other way with some power.

Corey Hart is another player who has felt the pain of the infield shift.  Houston put three infielders on the left side of the diamond against Hart this season, as reported by an article in Sports Illustrated.  Thats was dose of their own medicine, as the Brewers are the Rays of the National League — employing the shift more than any other team in the Senior Circuit.

“There’s still a lot more to be learned,” says Dewan, who estimates that there are 100 current major leaguers who should be shifted against but are ignored. “We still need more data. But there is evidence pointing to this as working.”

Tell that to the Rockies, Cardinals, and White Sox who have not shifted their defenses at all this year.  Some people just won’t learn.

So what is the deal with Edwin Encarnacion? Is he worth keeping for the long haul in fantasy baseball 2012? Or is he one of the fantasy baseball sleepers who may only be hot for the short term? It is hard to say, but it could be that he has finally figured it out at age 29. That age was when Jose Bautista, Encarnacion’s teammate, finally seemed to put it all together, and put together two All-Star seasons in a row. Of course, Bautista has had struggles in 2012; but that’s another story!

Well, if you have picked Edwin Encarnacion as one of your fantasy baseball sleepers, should you keep him on your fantasy baseball 2012 team? Yes, until he slows down. It could be that he is a late bloomer, who could finally be putting together a great season.

Deciding whether Edwin Encarnacion is worth keeping for the long haul is up to you, but it very well could be that 2012 is his year, especially given that his numbers as a designated hitter are significantly better than as a first baseman or a third baseman.  In addition, since he qualifies for all three positions, he has additional value. For now, at least, keep him on your fantasy team.

As with any fantasy player, stay on top of fantasy baseball news and read up on blogs to make sure you’re making the best possible choices for your team. With so many games in a season, it’s easy to lose track of your lineup if you’re not the most avid baseball fan who catches a lot of TV. There are so many great resources to consult, so make sure that you are in touch with more than one to get advice to better your lineups this season. The pros can keep you posted with all the best sleeper picks throughout the season!

FantasyGuru is a weekly blogger for prominent fantasy sports website, DraftStreet.

Now, Kate Upton (no relation to Justin or B.J.) is in the news again with this video that was banned by YouTube, then after it was moved to Vimeo, YouTube decided to put it back on its site.

So, we decided to see for ourselves and crossed the border to see Darvish pitch against the Toronto Blue Jays on Monday, April 30.  Darvish’s performance, much to the delight of the largely Asian audience, was superb and Yu ran his record to 4-0 on the year and his ERA dropped to 2.18.  Based on Darvish’s 2012 stats, at least so far, Darvish is living up to our expectations.  The only ding on  Darvish has been his control.  His 17 walks in 33 innings contribute to a less than stellar 1.42 WHIP on the year.  The key for Darvish is that while he will give up the free passes, he has such good stuff that he can get out of jams with strikeouts (33 K’s in 33 IP’s).

CARPET BAGGER: $11 gets you this seat at The Rogers Centre. Well, not really, but you can carpet bag down to the lower level to watch Yu Darvish toss his first pitch ever in Canada.

A SIGN OF THE APOCALYPSE: Blue Jays jerseys with player Twitter handles on them. @Just $34 (Canadian of course).

LINEUPS HERE: Smaller market teams need to make money in creative ways. Here, you can purchase official game used lineup cards for $200.

FREE BASE: You can buy third base from when Justin Verlander tossed his no-hitter versus the Blue Jays for just $2000.

BEER GAME: I've never seen one of these guys in Philly.

ACES: Ace, the Blue Jays mascot, poses with another ace, Ballpark Bob, of Fantasy Baseball Dugout.

Here are exclusive pictures by BallparkBob of an expecting Hazel Mae on the set for Blue Jays Pregame from The Rogers Centre in Toronto.

Hazel Mae is now a Blue Jays announcer

Hazel Mae doing the pregame show prior to the Monday, April 30 game vs. the Texas Rangers

I know, I need to get an iphone that takes better pictures.  I have an old model.

The 27-year-old Robertson is certainly well qualified to fill the very large shoes of Rivera. Robertson is coming off of a breakout year in which he appeared in 70 games with a 1.08 ERA, earning his first All-Star selection in the process. Robertson has also tossed 11 scoreless innings thus far in 2012.

Mark Texeira certainly gave a vote of confidence for Robertson. “Very confident in Robby,” Teixeira said. “He’s been so good for us in the eighth-inning role. He’s got great stuff. He’s got confidence.”

Rivera was placed on the DL prior to the start of last night’s game, thus giving them 10 on the DL; only the rival Red Sox have more players disabled. The Yankees pitching staff was furthered diminished when they moved Michael Pineda to the 60-day disabled list.

Rivera certainly has been durable over his career and it’s odd that a fluke injury occurred to him during batting practice. Rivera has not spent time on the DL since 2003. Some of his teammates, including Derek Jeter, suggested that Rivera may not return, but Rivera has vowed that he will return in 2013.

FANTASY BASEBALL DUGOUT RECOMMENDS Mike Trout as the better choice for 2012.

Most fantasy baseball experts will tell you to go with veteran players over newcomers as top rookies are often more hype than players that will lead you to a fantasy baseball league championship.

Moreover, picking up a 19-year-old player, no matter how good he appears to be, has historically not been a great decision.  Justin Upton was the top pick in 2005 and in his 19-year-old debut, Upton hit .221 in 140 at bats with 2 homers and 11 RBI.  Then, there’s Andruw Jones, who at age 19 was already a minor league player of the year on two occasions.  Jones’ 1996 mark was a .217 average in 106 AB’s with 5 homers and 13 RBI.  The only 19-year-old phenom to make a significant impact was Ken Griffey Jr.  Griffey Jr. was the first pick of the 1987 draft and he hit .264 with 16 homers, 61 RBI, and stole 16 bases.

Now, there’s 19-year-old Bryce Harper and 20-year-old Mike Trout to consider for your fantasy baseball team.  The two will inevitably be compared, but they are actually two very different ballplayers.

Harper appears to be swinging out of his shoes trying to send the ball into the next county with every cut.  He’s capable of hitting the ball 500+ feet and this fact was well documented starting at about age 15.  Trout, on the other hand, looks like a more polished hitter and has more of a line drive swing plane.

When it comes to experience, Harper has already appeared on the cover of Sports Illustrated.  He’s had only 129 games in the minors before making his MLB debut.  Trout got in 40 games last year as a 19-year-old and his stats, like his predecessors are equally unimpressive — just a .220 average in 123 at bats.  That being said, Trout does have a larger sample size of 286 games played at the minor league level where he has amassed a startling .342 average and was hitting at a .403 clip this year.

Washington and the Los Angeles Angels are teams going in opposite directions.  The Nationals sit atop the National League East thanks to the best pitching staff in baseball.  Washington has a 2.41 team ERA and opponents are hitting just .209 against the Nats this year.  The last place Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim are 23rd in runs scored and one of the biggest stories of the year has been Albert Pujols still looking for his first home run in an Angels uniform.

Harper is 6 – 19 on the year with 3 RBI.  Trout is 4 – 22 in 2012 with 0 RBI and 1 SB.

Who is the Better Fantasy Baseball Choice: Harper or Trout?

Each player’s value for fantasy baseball is likely going to come down to playing time.  Harper’s call up to the Bigs was necessitated by the injury to Ryan Zimmerman and the absolutely putrid play by the trio of left fielders in Washington.  Mark DeRosa, Xavier Nady, and Roger Bernadina were hitting a combined .097 on the year when starting in left field.  Mike Morse could probably help the cause, but he’s out until June.

In Los Angeles, Vernon Wells continues to be a disappointment in the Angels of the outfield and Peter Bourjos has an ailing hip that will likely require surgery in the off season.  That means that Trout is penciled in as the starter in center field until further notice.

One things is for sure.  Their managers are not afraid to throw these youngsters into the fire at their tender ages.  Manager Davey Johnson has already put Harper into the coveted #3 spot in the order for the Nationals.  Trout was so revered that the Angels decided to release 38-year-old veteran Bobby Abreu despite still owing Abreu $8 million this year.

So, of these two young superstars in the making, who is the better choice for your fantasy baseball team?  If you are looking for the next Rookie of the Year candidate, then your choice is most definitely Harper as Yu Darvish is going to get all of the votes for Rookie of the Year in the American League.  If you are looking for fantasy baseball stats, however, its kind of a toss up.  Harper likely is the better choice over an entire career so if you are in a keeper league, Bryce is your guy.  If you are looking for success in 2012, however, Trout has more security of getting playing time and is the better choice given his greater experience.

Are you two-start pitcher streaming? If not, you’re likely missing out on a great opportunity to increase your weekly strikeout total, win total, log more innings pitched, and potentially lower your team ERA and WHIP in head to head leagues that allow daily lineup changes.

Some leagues don’t allow such activity by limiting the number of player adds you can make each week. However, if you can find a loophole in your league settings and add/drop pitchers all season long – you’re going to have a great chance to win the whole thing come September!

For the fifth consecutive season, we will be tracking two start pitchers to make sure you always win your pitching categories. That way, if you consistently lose strikeouts each week – you can find someone who can help you in that category in a double capacity right away.

Fantasy Baseball Dugout’s exclusive two start pitcher rankings for 2012 Fantasy Baseball Week 5 start AFTER the jump!

2012 Week 5 Fantasy Baseball Two Start Pitcher Rankings

Below you will find each projected two start pitcher for fantasy baseball week 5 broken down into four categories – must start, would start, could start, and don’t start.

See a ranking you disagree with? Let us know in the comments below!

Must Start Two Start Pitchers:

• Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners
• Matt Cain, San Francisco Giants
• Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies

Would Start Two Start Pitchers:

• C.J. Wilson, Los Angeles Angels
• Yu Darvish, Texas Rangers
• Jordan Zimmermann, Washington Nationals
• Jeremy Hellickson, Tampa Bay Rays
• Brandon Beachy, Atlanta Braves
• Vance Worley, Philadelphia Phillies
• Mark Buehrle, Miami Marlins
• Trevor Cahill, Arizona Diamondbacks
• Mike Minor, Atlanta Braves
• Chris Sale, Chicago White Sox
• Bronson Arroyo, Cincinnati Reds
• Jason Hammel, Baltimore Orioles
• Patrick Corbin, Arizona Diamondbacks

Could Start Two Start Pitchers:

• Adam Wainwright, St. Louis Cardinals
• Hiroki Kuroda, New York Yankees
• Clay Buchholz, Boston Red Sox
• Ubaldo Jimenez, Cleveland Indians
• Matt Moore, Tampa Bay Rays
• Bud Norris, Houston Astros
• Philip Hughes, New York Yankees
• Ricky Nolasco, Miami Marlins
• R.A. Dickey, New York Mets
• Jonathan Sanchez, Kansas City Royals
• Randy Wolf, Milwaukee Brewers
• Tommy Milone, Oakland A’s
• Chris Volstad, Chicago Cubs
• Jerome Williams, Los Angeles Angels
• Duane Below, Detroit Tigers

Don’t Start Two Start Pitchers:

• Luke Hochevar, Kansas City Royals
• Jeff Samardzija, Chicago Cubs
• Juan Nicasio, Colorado Rockies
• Aaron Harang, Los Angeles Dodgers
• James McDonald, Pittsburgh Pirates
• Hector Noesi, Seattle Mariners
• Kyle Drabek, Toronto Blue Jays
• Charlie Morton, Pittsburgh Pirates
• Nick Blackburn, Minnesota Twins
• Drew Hutchinson, Toronto Blue Jays
• Joe Wieland, San Diego Padres

SPEED KILLS: Eric Young Jr. won't help you in many categories, except stolen bases, but he's worth it in deep NL-only leagues.

Eric Young, Jr., OF, Colorado Rockies  — All Eric Young Jr. will do for you is steal bases, but he’s actually quite good at it.  He has 4 SB’s already this year and amassed 27 in just 77 games last year.

Chris Johnson, 3B, Houston Astros  — Johnson is starting every day for the Astros at third.  He doesn’t anything very well for fantasy, but he is hitting .273 on the year so he won’t hurt you at the plate if injury forces him into your lineup at the corner position.

Ruben Tejada, SS, New York Mets  — With the emergence of Kirk Nieuwenheis, Ruben Tejada is likely destined for the difficult 8 hole in the lineup.  That won’t help his production and he won’t help you a lot with power or steals, but he is playing every day for the Mets and can be a solid backup middle infield replacement.

Brian Bogusevic, OF, Houston Astros  — Brian Bogusevic is hitting just .213 on the season, but we like his 3 SB’s.  Bogusevic stole 20 last year in just 58 games in Triple-A.  He’s going to have to do more to get value in mixed leagues, but for NL-only leagues, he has some backup potential and will likely remain in the Houston lineup.

Kirk Nieuwenhuis, OF, New York Mets — An injury replacement, Nieuwehuis is hitting leadoff and doing the job with a .323 average and 2 homers and 1 SB.  With Andres Torres returning to the lineup, Nieuwehuis will likely just move over to LF and replace Jason Bay who is injured and continues to struggle.  Torres has a history of injuries so we expect Nieuwehuis to pick up 400 AB’s this season.

Tyler Colvin, OF, Colorado Rockies  — Tyler Colvin will kill your batting.  He’s a .219 career hitter who hit .150 last year.  But, he will help you with power; he clouted 20 for the Cubs two years ago.  What better place for a power hitter than  Colorado?

Rick Ankiel, OF, Washington Nationals — Rick Ankiel is getting the starts against right-handers while being platooned with Roger Bernardina.  The Nationals, however,  have got to be getting a little tired of Bernardina’s lack of production, although manager Davey Johnson has said that he has not lost confidence in Bernardina.  Expect Ankiel to get increased playing time.

George Kottaras, C, Milwaukee Brewers  — What do you look for in a backup catcher?  Power.  George Kottaras has popped 3 homeruns in just 19 AB’s this season.

Skip Schumacher, 2B, St. Louis Cardinals — Skip Schumacher started the season on the DL and came off of it on April 20.  Since then, he has hit safely for four straight games. While he’s never been much of a power threat, his .346 career on-base percentage makes him potentially useful at second base in deeper NL leagues.  He’s also versatile and can likely qualify at infield and outfield positions for you.

Lucas Harrell, SP, Houston Astros– Lucas Harrell had a 2.63 ERA last year in the minors and is slotted in the #2 starter position in Houston.  While the Astros won’t get a lot of wins, Harrell could be used in a streaming situation for your rotation.

HOUSTON, WE HAVE A PITCHER: Lucas Harrell is the #2 starter in Houston. Used wisely when streaming starting pitchers, Harrell could be a good investment.

Barry Zito, SP, San Francisco Giants — Didn’t think I’d ever have Barry Zito on any pick up lists, but the most overpaid southpaw in baseball history is off to a great start.  Zito is at 1.67/0.93 in his 4 starts this season and is holding opponents to a .186 batting average!  Given how he’s burned so many fantasy owners in the past, he’s likely available in your league.  Maybe it’s a tip of the cap to new hot wife Amber Seyer Zito)

James McDonald, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates  — James McDonald lost a no-hit bid in the seventh against the Rockies this week and then picked up the tough luck loss after giving up just one earned run.  McDonald makes for a fine start on April 30 in Atlanta, but wins will continue to be hard to come by as long as the Pittsburgh offense continues to struggle.  He’s at 2.78/1.01 on the year and is holding opponents to a .184 average.

Anthony Bass, SP,  San Diego Padres  — With Dustin Moseley possibly out for the season, Anthony Bass will have a chance to stick in San Diego’s rotation. He strengthened his case by having the best start of his Major League career, blanking the Phillies and striking out more than a batter an inning. Bass needs to bring his walk total down, but he’s a solid 2.33/1.14 on the year and is holding opponents to a .179 average.

Lance Lynn, SP, St. Louis Cardinals  — The 24-year-old rotation replacement for Chris Carpenter is 4-0 and has not allowed more than one earned run in any of his four starts. Lance Lynn now sports a microscopic 1.33 ERA and 0.81 WHIP on the season.  The Cardinals are going to have a hard time moving him back to the pen if he keeps this up.  Start him with confidence as he faces the Pirates next time out.

Randall Delgado, SP, Atlanta Braves  — Jair Jurrjens was optioned to Triple-A Gwinnett earlier this week, thus keeping Randall Delgado in the rotation, at least until Tim Hudson returns.  Delgado has not got off to a great start, but showed potential last year (2.83/1.23 in 35 IP).

Kyle Kendrick, SP, Philadelphia Phillies  — Kyle Kendrick (husband of Baseball Hot Wife nominee Stephenie Lagrossa) slots into the #5 starter role in Philadelphia while Cliff Lee recovers.  Kendrick won’t help your WHIP numbers and his strikeout ratio is horrible, but he plays on a good team and has won 19 games over the past 2 seasons.

I love you Mom.