Michael Pineda to the Yankees: Fantasy Analysis

In getting traded to the New York Yankees, Miguel Pineda immediately gets thrown into a spotlight/pressure cooker situation. He’s projecting right now as no. 2 in the Yankees rotation behind CC Sabathia — so you know he will be in line for some wins if he can keep it consistent. After his All-Star start to the 2011 season – he struggled with getting wins down the stretch.

Obviously, wins aren’t as important in fantasy baseball as they are in real life. This is one of the great inaccuracies of fantasy baseball, but one of the biggest reasons great pitchers on bad teams still have a lot of value (see Hernandez, Felix circa 2010). As we start projecting player rankings for the 2012 draft season, look for Pineda to be a top 25 starting pitcher. It would seem that Pineda could be one of the biggest draft day values in fantasy baseball 2012 – and he should be a solid no. 2 in fantasy baseball, too.

For 2012 fantasy baseball analysis of Jesus Montero,

Jesus Montero to the Mariners: Fantasy Analysis

After what seemed to be years and years of waiting, Jesus Montero can FINALLY become a starting catcher. Ironically, incumbent Yankees catcher Jorge Posada finally retired this week.

The Mariners youth movement was hurt by the loss of Pineda, but they now have a great core of players who are all under 25. King Felix obviously is now the crown jewel of their pitching staff. Montero, first baseman Justin Smoak, second baseman Dustin Ackley, third baseman Kyle Seager, and left fielder Mike Carp are all 25 or under.

While he projects on the Mariners depth chart as a DH, Montero will retain eligibility at catcher. Because of his availability as a catcher, he becomes an instant top 10 catcher in fantasy baseball simply based on how his 2011 production projects over 162 games. After about 9 catchers in fantasy baseball, the value drops significantly – especially in terms of power numbers. Check out our top 25 catcher rankings for 2012 to see who’s ahead – and behind – of Montero in our rankings.

BallparkBob reviews the fantasy baseball projections for Yu Darvish and posts him as the 15th best starting pitcher in your fantasy baseball draft in 2012. Bob also reviews his projections for 2012 fantasy baseball sleepers at the first base position.

Fantasy Baseball Projections for Yu Darvish 

UNCLE CHARLIE: Yu Darvish threw the Rangers their first curve ball when he arrived at the Dallas airport wearing a t-shirt with a marijuana leaf on it. Turns out it was confirmed to be a Japanese maple leaf.

Darvish, Texas Ranger

Just how good is Yu Darvish?

The Texas Rangers are betting that he is very, very good.  That’s why they invested $112 million in Darvish over the next six years.  That’s 6 years at $60 million plus a $51.7 million posting fee paid to Darvish’s Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters club in Japan.  The actual number of the posting fee was $51,703,411. The 34 was Ryan’s jersey number. The 11 was Darvish’s number. The Rangers were hoping for a little luck with their bid.

The combined $111.7 million trumps the $103 million that the Red Sox forked over in 2006 to acquire Daisuke Matsuzaka.  Matsuzaka received $52 million over six years plus the Sox paid $51.1 million for Dice-K’s rights.

Darvish was making $6.4 million in Japan and was the highest paid player in the league.  Not surprising for a two time MVP.  His Japanese manager thinks Texas got a bargain.  ”He is a pitcher who deserves more. As a person who has been following the majors closely, I want to say he is better than that,” said Hideki Kuriyama, the Sapporo-based Nippon Ham Fighters manager

Rolling the Dice

Boston would probably prefer to have its money back on Dice-K.  The Red Sox won the 2007 World Series as Matsuzaka went 15-12 with a 4.40 earned run average — followed by an 18-3, 2.90 ERA season. But the right-hander is just 16-15, 5.03 since his best season and he will miss much of the upcoming final season of his contract recovering from elbow surgery.  Matsuzaka was 3-3, 5.30 last year.

Darvzilla 

COUNTING ON YU: Yu Darvish was the MVP of the World Baseball Classic.

Darvish is a big guy.  He’s 6′ 5″ and 220 pounds compared to Dice-K’s 6′ 0″ and 185 pounds.  At 6′ 5″, Darvish actually appears lanky at 220 pounds.  He can dine on American cheeseburgers and put on 25 pounds and still be at a healthy weight.  Moreover, Darvish’s freakishly large hands should be able to offset the differences in the American baseball which has less tack and lower seams than the Japanese ball.

The Japanese sensation has a fastball that averages between 92 and 95 mph, a plus slider/slurve and five other, handy secondary pitches: two-seamer, cutter, curveball, splitter, changeup.  In all, Darvish has been known to throw 9 different pitches, but it’s unlikely that Nolan Ryan will want him throwing that many different pitches.

Tumbling Dice

Both Darvish and Dice-K have one thing in common–they both have wives that were members of our Baseball’s Hottest Wives.  In fact, Darvish’s now ex-wife Saeko Darvish was our 2010 winner of Baseball’s Hottest Wives.

Let’s take a look at the stats of Darvish and Matsuzaka prior to their start in MLB:

Darvish: 76-28, 1.72 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 9.5 K/9, 4.9 K/BB

Matsuzaka: 93-45, 2.95 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 8.7 K/9, 2.96 K/BB

Clearly, Darvish’s numbers in the Japanese League are far superior to Dice-K’s to the tune of 1.23 ERA.  Kind of adds some credibility to the notion that Darvish is a comparative bargain.

Yu-Go

Moreover, Darvish is coming off the best of his seven seasons as a professional in Japan — 18-6, 1.44 — with the victories and ERA career highs, as were his 232 innings. He struck out 276 and walked 36.  Those are some impressive numbers; I don’t care what league your playing in.

But, perhaps the biggest thing that the newly divorced Darvish needs to do is adjust to American ways, both personally and to facing the best hitters in the world.  How will he fare pitching on those 100 degree days in Texas?  Also, ballparks in Japan are a bit larger overall and the hitters are smaller in general.  But, the biggest difference between pitching in Japan and in the USA is that pitchers in Japan pitch every 7 days, not every 5 days.

It is for that reason that USA Today’s Steve Gardner classifies Darvish as a high-risk, high-reward fantasy baseball selection.

“Darvish is an incredibly high risk-reward pick in drafts this year because no one knows how he will respond to pitching in the majors,” said Gardner. “Some fantasy owners will embrace the risk — and some will prefer to play it safe. Most likely, I’ll end up taking the safer course. Pitchers are creatures of habit and making the switch from pitching every seventh day to pitching every fifth can be a major disruption.”

So, where should Darvish go in your fantasy baseball draft?  Mike Siano of MLB.com thinks he’s the 25th best pitcher in MLB.  Sports Illustrated puts him a little higher at # 22.  Tristan Cockroft of ESPN has him at # 30 just behind another high risk pick, Stephen Strasburg.

I (BallparkBob) am more aggressive than the other fantasy baseball experts.  Why?  Because, I’ve watched the Yu Darvish videos on YouTube…over and over.  His stuff is simply nasty.  I have Yu Darvish at # 15 in the 2012 fantasy baseball draft just behind the man he replaced C.J. Wilson and Ian Kennedy.  I’d rather have Darvish than Adam Wainwright or Zack Greinke.

Watch his videos.  He’s nasty.

There are two schools of thought when it comes to fantasy baseball starting pitchers. The first states that you should grab some quality starters early in your draft (or use keeper spots for holding onto them). The second theory states that starting pitchers are way too inconsistent and therefore you should ignore pitchers until late in your draft. The best strategy probably lies somewhere squarely in the middle of the two. Whichever approach you take when crafting your fantasy baseball roster, you will want to at least grab one of the following top tier fantasy baseball starting pitchers. After all, under standard 5×5 fantasy baseball rules, half of your statistical categories will be determined by your pitchers.

Justin Verlander, the 2011 American League Cy Young Award winner, played youth baseball in Tuckahoe Little League in Richmond, Va. While guest author likes Roy Halladay as his #1 starting pitcher for 2012, we like Verlander's game a little bit more.

1) Roy Halladay (PHI) -
The reason many fantasy owners forsake starting pitchers until the later rounds is due to the fact that pitchers can be wildly inconsistent from year-to-year. Then there is Roy Halladay. He is the most consistent elite pitcher in the game. He is also the best in the business. Money in the bank.

2) Cliff Lee (PHI) -
If you can’t get Halladay, you don’t have to look very far for the second best fantasy baseball starting pitcher. Doc’s teammate Cliff Lee was possibly the best pitcher in the game after June 1st last season. A poor start to the season had some fantasy owners panicking early but with his peripherals in line, there was no real reason to doubt him. Expect another great season in 2011.

3) Tim Lincecum (SF) -
His 4 year LOW in strikeouts was the 220 he put up last season. Both his WHIP and ERA were better in 2011 over his 2010 numbers. With any run support at all, he could easily put up 20 wins. He’s a fantasy stud.

4) Justin Verlander (DET) -
Topping many experts’ lists for 2012, there is no doubt the Tigers ace had a monster season last year. However, he has traditionally struggled in April and last year was the first his ERA was below 3.37. The strikeouts have always been there and once he puts up back-to-back monster years, he’ll move up the list. For now, he’s just behind the big boys.  (Read about Justin Verlander’s girlfriend here.)

5) Felix Hernandez (SEA) -
So long as you temper your expectations in regard to Wins, “King Felix” is a good bet to deliver some great fantasy stats in 2012. His ERA rose by over run from 2010 partially due to a 40 point increase in BABIP as his xFIP remained steady. Seattle can’t be much worse than they were in 2011, so a few more Wins wouldn’t completely surprise. Get him.

6) Clayton Kershaw (LA) -
Deemed the best pitcher in the NL by the BBWAA in 2011, Kershaw has always had nasty stuff. His only issue in the past was his control. He cut a whopping 1.49 BB/9 off his numbers from 2010. Can he keep that control intact? Possibly. However, until we see it consistently, Kershaw falls just shy of the top of the list.

7) C.C. Sabathia (NYY) -
A free agent, where C. C. Sabathia ends up will affect his fantasy value. If he stays in the Bronx, the prolific Yankees offense will lead to another monster Win total (19, 21 and 19 over the past 3 seasons). If he lands elsewhere, expect him to continue to amass innings and strikeouts with his usual aplomb. He’s about as reliable as they come.

8) Dan Haren (LAA) -
Haren is reminiscent of Greg Maddux in the sense that he is about as exciting as a bowl of Jell-O, yet he continues to put up great stats year-in and year-out. Discounting the first half of 2010, Haren has been rock steady with his ERA and xFIP over the past 4 seasons. For some reason, he has never put up big Win totals despite amassing huge innings year after year. He’s very good but not quite elite.

9) Jon Lester (BOS) -
Picked by many to be a top 3 starting pitcher prior to 2011, Lester always seems to fall just short of the best in the business. He is yet to put up a season ERA under 3.00 and higher Win totals are expected from a pitcher with his stuff and Boston’s offensive punch backing him up. Draft him at the low end of the top ten starting pitchers and you’ll do just fine.

10) Madison Bumgarner (SF) -
On June 21, 2011 Bumgarner faced the Minnesota Twins in an interleague game and gave up 8 ER while retiring only 1 batter. It was one of the worst performances in fantasy baseball history. All young pitchers will take their lumps. Bumgarner rebounded to be one of the best control pitchers in the game in the second half last season (19 BB after the break). He’s primed to break out big time in 2012. Watch for it.

When considering fantasy baseball starting pitchers for 2012, if you are able to solidify your roster with one of these top ten pitchers, you will find the remaining depth at the position is favorable in building around your staff ace. Save taking chances for the later rounds and grab a keeper for the front end of your rotation and you’ll give yourself a better chance at locking up half of your 5×5 stats. Good luck in 2012!

MOORE VALUE: Matt Moore struck out 11 Yankees in 5 innings in his rookie debut.

Many fantasy baseball managers enter a draft thinking that pitching is an after-thought.  Rarely, does a manager spend more than 50% of his budget on his pitching staff.  That’s because pitchers tend to be a bit more inconsistent than every day players.  They get injured more and, except for the elite stars, they have more off years.

Yet, when it comes to fantasy baseball pitching, especially starting pitching, if you do your research, you will find the most value in this position than in all of the fantasy baseball positions.

So, here are our hot stove Top 15 Starting Pitchers Sleepers for 2012.

1.  Yu Darvish, Texas Rangers — Yu Darvish is the most exciting pitcher to come to the USA since Dice-K.  And, he’s a lot better.  Darvish was the MVP of the World Baseball Classic and his stuff is nothing short of nasty.  The Rangers have until January 18 to sign him or he’ll end up pitching in Japan again in 2012.  According to this story in the Kyodo News, the Rangers bid will end in 3411.  That’s 34 for Nolan Ryan and Darvish’s number 11.  The Rangers bid for the negotiating rights to Darvish was reported to be $51.7 million.  Darvish’s 18-6 record and 1.44 ERA were attractive enough for the Rangers to let ace C. J. Wilson walk to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.

2.  Matt Moore, Tampa Bay Rays — If you want to get some attention quickly, do what Matt Moore did last year when called up late in the year.  Moore pitched 5 innings in a start against the Yankees and struck out 11.  Against the Rangers in the ALDS, Moore gave up just one run in 10 innings of work.  Moore went 12-3 with a 1.92 ERA in 27 starts for Double-A Montgomery and Triple-A Durham this season, striking out 210 batters and walking only 46 in 155 innings. ESPN Baseball Insider Keith Law ranked Moore as the No. 2 prospect in the game.  The Rays agreed.  They have locked up Moore for 5 more seasons with 3 additional seasons as an option.

3.  Julio Teheran, Atlanta Braves — Teheran is a Rookie of the Year candidate for the pitching rich Braves.  Teheran received a late call up last year for Atlanta, but he’ll be slotted into the starting rotation this year.  At Gwinnett, Teheran was 15-3 with a 2.55 ERA.  The Braves have 7 solid starting pitchers for 2012 and may deal Jair Jurrjens for a hitter.  Teheran will battle Randall Delgado for the # 5 starting role, but we see Delgado spending most of the season at Triple-A again.

PITCHERS PET: Pitching at Petco helps make Luebke a top sleeper for the 2012 fantasy baseball season.

4.  Chris Sale, Chicago White Sox — In two years with the White Sox, Chris Sale has held opposing hitters to a .203 average as a reliever.  For 2012, Sale makes a move into the Chicago starting rotation.  With Sale’s ability to strike out batters (10.6/9IP), he will have success with the White Sox despite pitching in a homer friendly field for  half of the games.

5.  Brandon Beachy, Atlanta Braves — Beachy notched only 7 wins in 25 starts last season for Atlanta in his rookie year, but he deserved better.  His 3.68 ERA and 1.21 WHIP should improve for his second season in the Bigs.  We especially like his strikeout ratio (10.7/9 IP).  Beachy is a 15 win guy in 2012.

6.  Drew Pomeranz, Colorado Rockies — Pomeranz’s numbers last year in the minors included 20 starts and an ERA of 1.78.  The 6′ 5″ lefty held opponents to a .189 batting average.  We’d have him slotted even higher, but he has to pitch in home run happy Coors Field.  The fastball of Drew Pomeranz tops out at 95 and he has a nice knuckle curve.

7.  Cory Luebke, San Diego Padres –  Ohio-born Cory Luebke went 6-10 with a 3.29 ERA last year.  He appeared in 46 games, but was promoted to the starting rotation just before the all-star break and made 17 starts the rest of the way where he sported a 3.76 ERA.  Luebke has a strikeout ratio over 1 (10.0/9IP) and we like the idea of his pitching in Petco as a starter for the entire season.

8.  Guillermo Moscoso, Oakland Athletics — The A’s discovered a jewel last year in the 27-year-old rookie Moscoso.  The right-hander made 21 starts in 2011, going 8-10 with a 3.38 ERA, 1.09 WHIP.  He won’t get you a lot of strikeouts, but he pitches in a pitcher friendly park in Oakland.  With so many prospects coming to Oakland in the Gonzalez deal, he’ll have to fight for a starting spot, but we think his role is secure after his strong 2011 outing.

9.  Brad Peacock, Oakland Athletics –  Peacock was the Nationals’ top pitching prospect, but heads to Oakland as one of the prospects in the deal that sent Gio Gonzalez to Washington.  Pitching for Harrisburg and Syracuse last year, Peacock was a combined 15-3 and had a 2.01 ERA at Double-A Harrisburg and a 3.19 ERA at Triple-A Syracuse.  His strikeout ratio was an impressive 10.9 per 9 IP.  Peacock is a converted shortstop whose performance last year was a surprise to everybody.  Picking Peacock could make you proud in 2012.

10.  Brandon Morrow, Toronto Blue Jays — Morrow has spent two years as a regular starter for Toronto and his numbers are not impressive.  He was 11-11 with a 4.72/1.29 last year.  But, we see Morrow having a break out season thanks in part to his strikeout total of 203 last year.  In fact, Bill James has Morrow projected to be a 3.68 ERA guy in 2012.

11.  Michael Pineda, Seattle Mariners — Pineda was a big story last year as he sprinted to an all-star game appearance in his rookie season.  Pineda seemed to tire in the second half of the year, however, as he pitched at just a 5.12 ERA over the season’s second half.  Despite the second half swoon, Pineda was fifth in AL Rookie of the Year voting.  With added strength and endurance in 2012, Pineda can top his overall 9-10 with a 3.74 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 173 strikeouts in 171 innings.

12.  Adam Wainwright, St. Louis Cardinals — It’s a bit strange to call Adam Wainwright a sleeper when he was slotted in as the Cardinals’ ace last year.  But, when you consider that he was out for the entire 2011 season, we’ll loosely use the sleeper label on Wainwright.  Wainwright’s ERA sunk lower in each of the past 4 seasons prior to last year’s elbow injury and his 39 wins over 2009 and 2010 make him one of pitching’s elite.  If your managers are asleep at the wheel, you may be able to get Wainwright at a real value in 2012.

13.  Zach Britton, Baltimore Orioles — For the first two months of his rookie campaign last year, Britton held a sub 3.00 ERA.  He tailed off considerably, however, and even earned a demotion to the minors in September.  Britton finished his rookie season at 11-11 with 97 punchouts, a 4.61 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in 154 1/3 innings.  We think he’ll look a lot more like the Britton we saw early in the 2011 season in 2012.

14.  Bud Norris, Houston Astros — Bud Norris deserved more than six wins in 2011, but it’s hard to come by wins in Houston today. The 26-year-old lowered his WHIP by 0.15 and his ERA by 1.15 and finished 2011 at 6-11 with a 3.77 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 176 strikeouts in 186 innings.  Occasional wildness gets Norris in trouble, but he’s a solid starter for a bad team.

15.  Gio Gonzalez, Washington Nationals — The Nationals picked up the lefty starter that they needed in the ex-Oakland ace Gonzalez.  Gonzalez should have a smooth transition to the NL, where he could strike out even more batters and could even lower his WHIP.  He was 16-12/3.12/1.32 in 2011.  The addition of Gonzalez and a healthy Stephen Strasburg can make the Nationals into a contender in 2012.

Some other guys we liked but just didn’t quite make our Top 15 fantasy baseball pitcher sleepers for 2012 are:  Jarrod Parker (Athletics); Wandy Rodriguez (Astros); Jonathan Sanchez (Royals) Jonathan Niese (Mets); Jeff Niemann (Rays); Edinson Volquez (Padres); Brett Myers (Astros); Joe  Blanton (Phillies).

SALE: Padres Latos jerseys are now half off.

Well, Latos leaves a Padres team that has struggled to score runs to a Cincinnati team that has considerably more pop.  According to Park Factors at ESPN, Petco was the 28th friendliest ballpark to score runs.  In fact, in its 8 years of existance, Petco has been in the top 5 of pitchers’ parks.

Latos has enjoyed pitching at Petco as much as the other guy.  In 2011, Latos was 5-7/3.24/1.15 at home and 4-7/3.68/1.22 on the road.  In 2010, Latos’ ERA was 2.59 at home and 3.14 on the road.

He won’t benefit from cavernous Petco in 2012, however.  Petco, remember, has a 400 feet deep right-center and measures 382 feet to right field. Great American, by comparison, measures 370 to right-center and 325 to right field, substantially smaller dimensions.

2012 Fantasy Baseball Projection: Mat Latos — Mat Latos will likely see some drop off in his ERA and WHIP with the move to Cincinnati, just as any pitcher would when leaving Petco.  He should, however, benefit from the Reds’ stronger hitting: Cincinnati was 7th in runs scored last year versus San Diego’s 28th.  As a high strikeout pitcher, the effect of the ballpark move will be lessened.  We project Latos to win 15 games with the Reds while sporting a 3.60 ERA and 1.25 WHIP, thus with a fantasy baseball value that is neutral versus 2011.

Yonder Alonso: Slugger Gets His Chance

Acquired in the multi-player deal for the Padres is first baseman Yonder Alonso who was born in Cuba.  Alonso was blocked at first base by Joey Votto and will now get his chance to play in San Diego.

The Reds gave up a lot to get the 24-year-old Latos from San Diego.  Yonder Alonso, Yasmani Grandal, Edinson Volquez and Brad Boxberger were all sent to sunny San Diego. You don’t give away a 24-year-old front line starter without getting a lot in return.  And, Yonder Alonso is the biggest piece of the trade.

Alonso was the 8th overall pick in the 2008 draft.  And, he looked great in his late season call-up last year before a foul ball off his foot on September 19 move him permanently into a pinch hitting role.  In 47 games, Alonso hit .330 and had 5 home runs and 15 RBI in just 88 at bats.  Coupled with some strong minor league stats, Alonso will be a consideration for San Diego in 2012.

He will battle Jesus Guzman for the first base job, but at this point, you’d have to think that Guzman is the favorite based on his solid .307/5/44/9 numbers of last season.  The Padres are actually stacked at the first base position with Kyle Blanks and Anthony Rizzo as well so perhaps Alonso could make the move to the outfield.

2012 Fantasy Baseball Projection: Yonder Alonso — It’s too early to know what Alonso’s role with the Padres will be in 2012.  We are taking a wait and see approach to Alonso, but if he earns even a part-time starting role, Yonder Alonso could be a solid sleeper for the 2012 season.

WILD BLUE YONDER: Alonso may slot into the Padres lineup.

Fantasy Baseball Dugout takes a look at the winners and losers thus far in the 2011 free agent market.  Which players will perform better in their new homes and which players will struggle.  We take a look.

Philly Phans will love Papelbon's energy on the mound.

Albert Pujols:  Cardinals –> Angels  Value: Slightly Up

With the PED charge looming against Ryan Braun, Albert Pujols at age 32 just may be the #1 pick again in the 2012 fantasy baseball draft.  Pujols has fared well in his career as both a DH (.360) and against the American League (.348) so we don’t expect any decline.  The only slight concern is that Pujols is coming off of his worst season ever, although worst season for Albert Pujols means .299/37/99/9.  By being fully healthy and able to take a day off as the DH occasionally, Pujols’ hitting should improve over his 2011 season.

Joe Nathan: Twins –> Rangers  Value: Up

No matter where Joe Nathan went, his value over his 2010 and 2011 seasons was bound to be up.  That’s because Nathan spent all of 2010 on the shelf after having Tommy John surgery and he sat out most of the 2011 season.  Nathan was baseball’s save leader from 2004 through 2009 and had a combined 1.87 ERA which was better than Mariano Rivera’s 1.90.  Nathan, age 37, is healthy for 2012 and he’s on a great team, but you have to question his durability given the past two seasons so that will cause his fantasy value to drop despite being the closer on the team that has been to two consecutive World Series.

Jonathan Papelbon:  Red Sox –> Phillies  Fantasy Value: Neutral

Jonathan Papelbon moves from one very good team to another.  He’ll surely get his share of saves in Philadelphia, at least on the days that Roy Halladay doesn’t pitch.  Papelbon has blown just 14 saves in the past 3 seasons in Boston, despite struggling a bit in the 2010 season when many fans were calling for fireballing Daniel Bard to take his spot.  There won’t be such competition in Philadelphia where his job is secure with set up men Daniel Bastardo and Jose Contreras.

More Homeruns are in the cards for Cuddyer in 2012.

Heath Bell: Padres –> Marlins  Fantasy Value: Neutral

Heath Bell is the clear closer in Miami now that Leo Nunez’s true identity has been discovered as Juan Carlos Oviedo.  Nunez, or Oviedo, is currently on the restricted list from MLB, thus giving Bell the clear access to the closer position.  Over the past three years, Bell’s 132 have been as consistent as a warm San Diego day.  Bell is moving from one of the best pitcher’s parks in the Majors to another pitchers’ park in Miami.  He will have another 40+ save season for the new look Marlins.

Jose Reyes: Mets –> Marlins  Fantasy Value: Neutral to Up

A 6 year, $106 million contract lured Reyes to Miami.  Reyes is coming off of a great 2011 season in which he put up some big numbers, despite missing 36 games.  He will be moving to the leadoff spot with a revived Hanley Ramirez in the 3 hole and Mike Stanton hitting cleanup.  If your league counts runs scored, Reyes value is up.

Huston Street: Rockies –> Padres  Fantasy Value: Up

Anytime an already good pitcher can move from Coors Field to Petco Park, you have to think that his value is going up, way up.  Coors Field was #1 in runs scored in 2011 and Petco Park was # 28.  Pitchers’ ERA’s at Coors was 4.89 and at Petco it was 2.91.  As for Street, he was 5.59/1.41 at Coors and 2.51/1.02 on the road.  I have a feelign Street is happy to be in San Diego.

Mark Buehrle: White Sox –> Marlins  Fantasy Value: Up

Mark Buehrle has pitched a perfect game and a no hitter in his career.  He’s also started an all-star game.  That being said, he’s never had an ERA below 3.00 in his 12 seasons with the White Sox.  Buehrle has all the makings of improved stats in 2012.  First of all, he moves from the park that is easiest in the league to hit a homerun, US Cellular Field, to the new Marlins Ballpark.  Second, he moves to the National League where ERA’s are always improved.  Third, his history shows a lifetime 3.32 ERA in inter-league play and a 24-6 record against the NL.  That compares to 3.89 and 137-113 against AL opponents.  In the past 7 seasons, Buehrle is 16-2 and 2.29 against the National League in 25 starts.

Josh Willingham:  A’s –> Twins  Fantasy Value: Down

Willingham is coming off a great year with Oakland in 2011 where he set career marks in homeruns (29), RBI (98), and runs (69).  Willingham has hit in pitchers’ parks for his entire career with Oakland, Washington, and Florida so he’s no stranger to hitting in the caverns of Target Field.  Willingham has never hit for much of an average and he strikes out a lot.  Don’t expect that to change, but we don’t see Willingham being able to match those 29 home runs in Minnesota.

C.J. Wilson: Rangers –> Angels  Fantasy Value: Up

Wilson is the biggest signing of the year not named Albert.  He’ll join Dan Haren and Jared Weaver on a starting pitching staff rivaled only by the Phillies.  A move from Texas to Los Angeles has got to help Wilson’s numbers.  He leaves the #1 hitters park according to Park Factor and moves to the #27 hitters park.  According to Baseball Reference, he leaves a home run index of 111 to 93 in Los Angeles.  Wilson loved pitching on the road where he’d been 2.56/1.18 versus 3.70/1.25 at home in Texas.

Aramis Ramirez: Cubs –> Brewers  Fantasy Value: Down

Ramirez joins a Brewers team that is likely going to be without Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun.  That won’t help Ramirez’s protection in the lineup.  Aramis Ramirez had a solid 2011 season at .306/26/93/1.  Ramirez liked Wrigley.  He won’t fare as well in Milwaukee in 2012 although the Brewers will like him a lot more than Casey McGehee.

Michael Cuddyer: Twins –> Rockies  Fantasy Value: Up Considerably

Every fantasy baseball manager should wish that his players moved to Colorado.  Cuddyer has always been a solid player but playing in Target Field kept him to being ranked as the 95th best fantasy player last year by ESPN.  He’ll like hitting in Colorado where he should surpass his 29 homerun season of 2009.  At Coors Field, 10.7% of all fly balls leave the park; in Target, it’s only 7.6%.  One of the added values of Cuddyer is that he actually qualifies as a second baseman having played 17 games at second in 2011.  That should help his draft position dramatically.  He’ll likely hit between Tulowitzki and Helton and is capable of a .300 season with 30+ home runs in Colorado.

But, with Pujols and Ramirez each coming off of their worst seasons ever in 2011, choosing Prince Albert or HanRam are no longer the sure fire locks for the #1 pick in the fantasy baseball draft in 2012.  Add to that the uncertainty of Pujols’s injury last season, his advancing age (32), and the fact that he’s changing leagues and you’re actually going to have to think if you have the top pick in your draft in 2012.  As for Hanley Ramirez, his age (28)  is not yet a concern, but his 2011 performance and rotten attitude are.

Ryan Braun poses with one of his many fans.

Our #1 pick for the 2012 fantasy baseball season is the Milwaukee Brewers Ryan Braun.  Here’s our Top 12 picks for the first round of your traditional mixed league draft for the 2012 season.

First Round Draft Picks — 2012 Fantasy Baseball

1.  Ryan Braun, Outfielder, Milwaukee Brewers

Ryan Braun has hit over .300 for 4 of the past 5 seasons. We especially like that he stole 33 bases last year which is 13 more than his highest totals ever. The Hebrew Hammer is in the prime of his career at age 28 and is coming off of an MVP season. Signing Prince Fielder as protection is the only concern for the 2012 season.

2. Albert Pujols, First Baseman, Los Angeles Angels

Albert Pujols is coming off of his worst season in 2011, but we’re not panicking. A “worst” season for Pujols is still extraordinary He hit 37 homers last year and drove in 99 in leading the Cardinals to the World Series championship. After coming back from his elbow injury, he hit .314 in his last 74 games. Getting used to American League pitching won’t be a problem — Pujols has a career batting average of .348 against the AL. Being able to DH on occasionally won’t hurt either; as a DH, Pujols is hitting .360.

3. Matt Kemp, Outfielder, Los Angeles Dodgers

It’s hard to imagine that Matt Kemp didn’t win the MVP in 2011, but that’s the curse of playing for a team that ends up just 3 games above .500 and in third place. Kemp had a monster season at .324 with 39 homers, 126 RBI, and 40 stolen bases. Kemp is a rare combination of power and speed and at age 27, he’s in the prime of his production years. The only reason we didn’t make him #1 is that he’s been putting up gaudy numbers for a few years less than Braun and Pujols.

Year	Age	Tm	G	PA	AB	R	H	HR	RBI	SB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2003	18	LAD-min	43	168	159	11	43	1	17	2	.270	.298	.346	.644
2004	19	LAD-min	122	500	460	72	135	18	75	10	.293	.337	.504	.841
2005	20	LAD-min	109	454	418	76	128	27	90	23	.306	.349	.569	.918
2006	21	LAD-min	92	426	381	75	132	10	70	25	.346	.414	.543	.957
2006	21	LAD	52	166	154	30	39	7	23	6	.253	.289	.448	.737
2007	22	LAD-min	39	174	161	32	53	4	20	9	.329	.374	.540	.914
2007	22	LAD	98	311	292	47	100	10	42	10	.342	.373	.521	.894
2008	23	LAD	155	657	606	93	176	18	76	35	.290	.340	.459	.799
2009	24	LAD	159	667	606	97	180	26	101	34	.297	.352	.490	.842
2010	25	LAD	162	668	602	82	150	28	89	19	.249	.310	.450	.760
2011	26	LAD	161	689	602	115	195	39	126	40	.324	.399	.586	.986
6 Seasons			787	3158	2862	464	840	128	457	144	.294	.350	.496	.846
162 Game Avg.			162	650	589	96	173	26	94	30	.294	.350	.496	.846

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/10/2011.

Don't expect watered down stats for Cabrera in 2012.

4. Miguel Cabrera, First Baseman, Detroit Tigers

Miguel Cabrera has been putting up huge numbers since his last year in Miami. And, at age 28, he’s got a lot left in him. Cabrera led the AL in average in 2011 at .344 and the Venezuelan star played in 161 games so you know he’s durable. The only reason he’s not our #1 pick is the he can’t steal bases like Braun and Kemp and his past problems with alcohol make us a little uneasy.

5. Jose Bautista, Outfielder & Third Baseman, Toronto Blue Jays

Jose Bautista offers the incredibly rare luxury of qualifying at two positions — outfielder and third baseman. This makes Bautista an even more valuable commodity. If it were ten years ago and you looked at his improvement in numbers over the past two years, you’d have to guess that he was juicing. 43 home runs and 103 RBI last year. Wow!

6. Justin Upton, Outfielder, Arizona Diamondbacks

If you play in a keeper league that’s going to be around for a while, Justin Upton would be my pick. That’s because at age 24, Upton’s going to be around a while. The scary thing about Upton is that he still has considerable…Upside. At age 24, his 31 home runs, 88 RBI, and 21 stolen bases from last season are simply building blocks for larger numbers in the future.

7. Troy Tulowitzki, Shortstop, Colorado Rockies

Troy Tulowitzki is our highest ranking shortstop. With Hanley Ramirez’s attitude being of concern, Tulo is the new heir apparent on everybody’s list of top shortstops. If you play the position scarcity strategy, he’s an even higher pick.

8. Justin Verlander, Starting Pitcher, Detroit Tigers

Can you imagine a starting pitcher that throwing 251 innings and having a sub-1.00 WHIP. That’s exactly what you got from Justin Verlander in 2011 with a WHIP of 0.92. Add 24 wins, a 2.40 ERA, and 250 strikeouts and Roy Halladay is no longer the top fantasy baseball starting pitcher.

9. Adrian Gonzalez, First Baseman, Boston Red Sox

Adrian Gonzalez did not disappoint the Fenway faithful and his huge salary in his 2011 campaign. Gonzalez put up 30 home runs and 105 RBI and added a surprising .338 batting average.

10. Jacoby Ellsbury, Outfielder, Boston Red Sox

The only rap against Jacoby Ellsbury is that he had his first monster year in 2011 and was injured for most of the 2010 season. Still, his .321 average with 32 home runs, 105 RBI, and 39 stolen bases make him a first round pick in all fantasy baseball leagues.

11. Roy Halladay, Starting Pitcher, Philadelphia Phillies

Roy Halladay is durable, likes to finish what he starts, and is incredibly consistent. And, while fantasy baseball pitchers don’t often get the props they deserve, Halladay remains a rare breed, even at age 34. Halladay’s 19 wins, 2.35 ERA, and 1.04 WHIP make him a first rounder on a Phillies team that will continue to win a lot of ball games.

12. Robinson Cano, Second Baseman, New York Yankees

Robby Cano is even more valuable when you consider that he plays second base, thus distancing yourself from teams with ordinary second sackers. At age 29, Cano is still in his prime production years and he has a bevy of talent surrounding him. His .302 average with 28 homers and 118 RBI makes Cano the best keystoner in the game and a first round pick in most leagues.