Fantasy Baseball Dugout » Fantasy Baseball Tips

Pineda – Montero Trade Fantasy Baseball Implications

ballparkbob34 — Wed, 25 Jan 2012 01:36:17 +0000

Jonathan Bentz of Fantasy Baseball Dugout discusses the Michael Pineda for Jesus Montero trade and its impact on fantasy baseball 2012.

Michael Pineda to the Yankees: Fantasy Analysis

In getting traded to the New York Yankees, Miguel Pineda immediately gets thrown into a spotlight/pressure cooker situation. He’s projecting right now as no. 2 in the Yankees rotation behind CC Sabathia — so you know he will be in line for some wins if he can keep it consistent. After his All-Star start to the 2011 season – he struggled with getting wins down the stretch.

Obviously, wins aren’t as important in fantasy baseball as they are in real life. This is one of the great inaccuracies of fantasy baseball, but one of the biggest reasons great pitchers on bad teams still have a lot of value (see Hernandez, Felix circa 2010). As we start projecting player rankings for the 2012 draft season, look for Pineda to be a top 25 starting pitcher. It would seem that Pineda could be one of the biggest draft day values in fantasy baseball 2012 – and he should be a solid no. 2 in fantasy baseball, too.

For 2012 fantasy baseball analysis of Jesus Montero,

Jesus Montero to the Mariners: Fantasy Analysis

After what seemed to be years and years of waiting, Jesus Montero can FINALLY become a starting catcher. Ironically, incumbent Yankees catcher Jorge Posada finally retired this week.

The Mariners youth movement was hurt by the loss of Pineda, but they now have a great core of players who are all under 25. King Felix obviously is now the crown jewel of their pitching staff. Montero, first baseman Justin Smoak, second baseman Dustin Ackley, third baseman Kyle Seager, and left fielder Mike Carp are all 25 or under.

While he projects on the Mariners depth chart as a DH, Montero will retain eligibility at catcher. Because of his availability as a catcher, he becomes an instant top 10 catcher in fantasy baseball simply based on how his 2011 production projects over 162 games. After about 9 catchers in fantasy baseball, the value drops significantly – especially in terms of power numbers. Check out our top 25 catcher rankings for 2012 to see who’s ahead – and behind – of Montero in our rankings.

Fantasy Baseball Hot Stove Tips

ballparkbob34 — Sat, 12 Nov 2011 19:46:55 +0000

Ballpark Bob Bentz discusses hot stove league action with implications for fantasy baseball in the 2012 season. Jonathan Bentz gives fantasy football tips for week 10 of NFL action.

Do you go by the names or the numbers?

BeeZee — Sat, 23 Jul 2011 12:44:36 +0000

Editor’s Note: Below is another awesome contribution to the Fantasy Baseball Dugout library from the Fantasy Baseball Scholars, Ryan Jones and Tim Lander. Make sure you check them out on Facebook and follow them on Twitter, too.

Names sometimes lie to us. Our perception of a player is often dictated by their reputation or pedigree. As a fantasy owner, you must determine whether it’s the name you want or the numbers. A successful fantasy owner knows that it is always the actual numbers. Lack of knowledge on what a particular players actual numbers are can give you a statistical advantage over your leagues owners. The best way to compare players is without the names attached. Take a look at these players stats to see how your perception matches up with reality on a statistical analysis. Statistics are IP/QS/ERA/WHIP/K and updated as of July 21st, 2011.

Pitcher A: 107.7/12/2.28/1.04/61
Pitcher B: 115.2/14/2.26/1.11/71

Who has the edge here? They are basically identical. ERA is about the same, Pitcher A has a better WHIP, and Pitcher B gets a few more strikeouts. Know who they are? Pitcher A is Pittsburgh’s Jeff Karstens, while Pitcher B is Jair Jurrjens, who made the All Star Game.

Pitcher A: 12 QS / 3.37 ERA / 1.16 WHIP / 8 W / 7.76 K/9
Pitcher B: 14/3.26/1.15/8/8.66

Pitcher B in essence, strikes out one more batter per nine innings than Pitcher A. Other than that their numbers are similar across the board. Pitcher A is Jhoulys Chacin, Pitcher B is Felix Hernandez.

Pitcher A: 14 QS / 2.90 ERA / 1.20 WHIP / 8 W / 10.17 K/9
Pitcher B: 9/3.01/1.17/7/8.51

Pitcher A has a clear edge in strikeouts but not much more. He should, it’s Tim Lincecum. Pitcher B? Scott Baker

Pitcher A: 37 IP / 34 K / 23 SV / 4 BSV / 1.70 ERA / .97 WHIP
Pitcher B: 43.2 / 38 / 28 / 1 / 1.30 / .92

I decided to throw a reliever in the mix. Pitcher B is having a dominant season. Chances are he wasn’t drafted in your league, but was most likely picked up on the waiver wire. Pitcher B is Joel Hanrahan. Pitcher A may be the best closer of all time, Mariano Rivera. Find analysis on 3 hitters after the jump…

Hitter A: 12 HR / 54 RBI / 61 R / 14 SB / .294 BA / .331 OBP
Hitter B: 14 / 55 / 62 / 16 / .288 / .356

Hitter A was a bargain free agent signing by a small market club. Hitter B was a consensus top 10 pick in all leagues. Hitter A is Melky Cabrera. Hitter B is Carlos Gonzalez.

Hitter A: 17 HR / 55 RBI / 47 R / 12 SB / .242 BA / .330 OBP
Hitter B: 18 / 64 / 47 / 6 / .270 / .344

Hitter A was a pre-season Scholar sleeper and Hitter B was no worst than the #2 ranked SS by all publications. Hitter A is Danny Espinosa. Hitter B is Troy Tulowitzki.

Hitter A: 26 HR / 70 RBI / 85 R / 18 SB / .272 BA / .366 OBP
Hitter B: 3 / 38 / 36 / 14 / .271 / .384

We ripped player A all over our website this off-season yet he is on pace for 44 HR’s, 146 runs, 120 RBI’s, 31 SB’s, and a .366 OBP. Player B meanwhile was in our Elite 13 for being a lock to obtain a .370 OBP, 15+ SB’s, 15+HR’s, 80 runs, and 80 RBI. (Yes we’re man enough to admit when we were wrong). Hitter A is Curtis Granderson. Hitter B is Bobby Abreu.

As you can see by this collective list, fantasy baseball is much more in depth than many of us truly know. The league champions are the guys who recognize bargains and jump on it while also knowing when to let go of a washed up fantasy star. If you’re not following your guys and the free agent market you might be missing out on the next Jose Bautista or Nelson Cruz.

- The Scholars: Tim Lander and Ryan Jones

You can follow us on Facebook at Fantasy Baseball Scholars or on twitter at @ScholarsFBB.

Fantasybaseballscholars.com

Strikeouts & Whip: The Key to pitching success in Fantasy Baseball

ballparkbob34 — Sat, 16 Jul 2011 00:07:16 +0000

The strikeout is the foundation of a pitchers success in Major League Baseball. The ability to strike out a batter makes a good pitcher, a great one. A pitcher that can get out of a jam by striking out a couple hitters is what separates ordinary starting pitchers from outstanding Fantasy Pitchers. It doesn’t matter if your league uses strikeouts as a category or not. The best pitchers in the majors are top Strikeout pitchers.

Carl Pavano: Not a guy to stache on your roster

Consider these facts from the Top 20 MLB Strikeout Leaders from 2010:

-They won Cy Young awards in both the AL & NL.

-They pitched 3 no-hitters during 2010, including a perfect game by Roy Halladay.

-All Three 20+ game winners Halladay, Wainwright, Sabathia.

-No starting pitcher in the top 20 had fewer than 12 Wins.

-The highest ERA of any pitcher on the list was 3.91 by Dan Haren

-Only Two pitchers on the list had a WHIP over 1.30 Gallardo & Dempster

Now let’s look at the top 20 2011 First Half Strikeout Leaders:

-Only one has a losing record, Bud Norris (5-6)

-They have thrown 1 of 2 no hitters this year. One by Jason Verlander – the other by Fransisco Liriano who was top 20 K’s in 2010.

-Ten have an ERA below 3.00

-The worst ERA among them is David Price 3.70

-Ten have a WHIP 1.055 or better; four have a WHIP below 1.00The worst WHIP among them is Gio Gonzalez at 1.27

-Eight of these top 20 in K’s have double digit Wins, the rest of the league totals five.

-Eleven pitchers are in the top 20 for strikeouts both years (Verlander, Kershaw, Halladay , Hamels , King Felix, Lester, Sabathia, Lincecum, Weaver, Haren, & Price) Two members from 2010’s top 20 in K’s are close (Gallardo at #24, Dempster at #26)

-18 of the 20 on the list are All Star selections this year (Tommy Hanson & Ian Kennedy are missing)

WHIP is the second component to evaluating pitchers. The theory of WHIP(Walks + Hits divided by Innings pitched) is that the fewer batters that get on base via a hit or walk, the more valuable the pitcher is to his team. Makes sense, if you don’t allow more runners on base, there are fewer opportunities for the other team to score runs. Pitchers that walk hitters will infuriate their real life managers and fantasy owners alike. Look for the best pitchers to have a WHIP right around 1.20 or better, 1.10 is outstanding. So here is the real key to evaluating pitchers – You must look at Both Strikeouts and WHIP. The best pitchers have both. You can not focus on wins. Wins happen sometimes when they shouldn’t, but hardly ever when a pitcher gives up a ton of hits, walk a bunch of guys, and doesn’t strikeout anybody. They can’t get out of a jam by striking out a couple guys like the better pitchers. Take a long hard look at pitchers that can strikeout 150+ and pitchers that strike out a batter per inning. Pitchers such as Carl Pavano don’t strike anybody out and occasionally get beat up. While he may be innings eaters for his team, Pavano’s three year average for ERA & WHIP are above where you want to be in both categories (4.50 ERA & 1.30 WHIP) He doesn’t have hardly any strikeouts and his WHIP is weak, which is why you will never see him on a Scholar’s roster. Relievers like Carlos Marmol 52 K’s in 41 IP(he had 138 K’s in 77 IP in 2010), & Craig Kimbrel with 70 punch outs in 45 IP helps explain why each is a dominant closer in their own right.

If you’re not sold on the fact that K’s and WHIP are the most important factors then just look at the last two Cy Young award winners from each league.

Felix Hernandez 232 K’s 1.05 WHIP

Roy Halladay 219 K’s 1.04 WHIP

Zack Greinke 242 K’s 1.07 WHIP

Tim Lincecum 261 K’s 1.04 WHIP

The bottom line is that when you’re scouting or drafting pitchers strikeouts and WHIP are by far the most important statistics to consider.

This guest post is compliments of Ryan Jones and Tim Lander of Fantasy Baseball Scholars. Follow Tim and Ryan on Facebook at Fantasy Baseball Scholars and on Twitter @ScholarsFBB

Fantasy Baseball By the Numbers

ballparkbob34 — Thu, 23 Jun 2011 15:49:45 +0000

Tulo's stats stand up; Hanley in a slide.

Today’s special post is from our good friends over at Fantasy Baseball Scholars.

At Fantasy Baseball Scholars, we put a huge emphasis on trends. Whether it’s over a couple seasons or over a couple months typically if you follow the trends you can give yourself a good idea of what to expect in the future with any particular player.

A perfect example of this is Hanley Ramirez. We have mentioned recently on our site that we’re not surprised with Hanley’s rough start and thought Tulo was the safer pick at the beginning of the season because of Hanley’s long term trends. From 2008 to 2010 Ramirez’s home runs have gone from 33-24-21 and his runs scored have gone 125-101-92. Even though it looks like those trends will continue, we never imagined Hanley would fall apart the way he has, but it’s worth mentioning that we did have Tulo over Hanley on draft day. (Kudos to you Fantasy Baseball Scholars; we had Hanley as the top fantasy baseball shortstop.)

To help our followers with current trends we run a weekly article titled “By the Numbers” which outlines stats over the last few weeks, 30 days, or for the season thus far. Please enjoy this week’s 50 “By the Numbers” and best of luck the rest of the season to all of you. These numbers are based on stats accrued up until June 20th, 2011.

0 HR’s by Joe Mauer

1 Pitching victories by Chris Carpenter

2 Pitching victories by Luke Gregerson & Mike Adams

3 Shutouts by James Shields

4 HR’s for Hanley Ramirez, the consensus pre-season #2 overall pick

5 HR’s for Evan Longoria, a pre-season top 10 pick

6 HR’s for Michael Morse so far in June

7 HR’s for Adam Dunn, whose 3 year average is 39

8 Losses by H. Kuroda despite a 3.07 ERA

9 Times Caught Stealing by Juan Pierre

10 Stolen Bases by Juan Pierre

11 SB’s by Asdrubel Cabrera without being caught this season

12 Team triples by the St. Louis Cardinals

13 Triples by Jose Reyes

14 Triples by Dexter Fowler in 2010, the league leader

15 Quality Starts by Jason Verlander, recording 9 Wins

16 Games Started by CC Sabathia, 8 Quality Starts, recording 9 wins

17 Doubles for Phillies slugger Ryan Howard

18 Doubles by Angels infielder Maicer Izturis

19 Saves by Leo Nunez

20 Number of days Nunez went without a save since his 19th

21 Team Stolen Bases by the Chicago Cubs

22 Stolen bases by Michael Bourn since 4/22/2011

23 Runs scored by 3B Aramis Ramirez

24 Runs scored by 3B eligible Ronny Cedeno

25 Runs scored by 3B Wilson Betemit

26 Runs scored by utility man Orlando Cabrera

27 Extra Base Hits for Mark Reynolds, who has just 23 singles

28 Extra Base Hits by Albert Pujols

29 Extra Base Hits by Danny Espinosa

30 Stolen bases by Michael Bourn, the major league leader

31 Number of strikeouts for BJ Upton in his past 93 at bats

32 RBI’s for Mark Teixeira in his past 30 games

33 Runs scored for Curtis Granderson in his past 30 games

34 Multiple Hit games for Jose Reyes

35 Hits for the season for Jason Heyward

36 San Diego 1B replacements combined RBI (A.Gonzalez has 67)

37 Number of games since Dan Uggla’s average has been above the Mendoza line

38 Strikeouts for SP David Price in his past 5 starts

39 Runs scored for Ichiro, batting .277 on the season

40 SB’s Matt Kemp is on pace for this season

41 Strikeouts by Zack Greinke in his past five starts

42 Hits for Adrian Gonzalez in the month of May

43 HR Matt Kemp is on pace for – Kemp is on track for 40/40

44 Stolen bases pace for Ian Desmond

45 RBI for Albert Pujols and Ryan Ludwick

46 Walks drawn differential between Jose Bautista (62) and N. Cruz (16) the most and least for players who have 15+ Hr this season

47 Combined BB total of S.Castro, E.Andrus, & A.Jones all have hit leadoff this season

48 Combined Walks issued by Halladay, Haren, Jurrjens this season. Jonathan Sanchez has issued 53.

49 Strikeouts for Drew Stubbs in his past 30 games

50 Hits for Drew Stubbs in those same 30 games

Thanks for viewing!

Fantasybaseballscholars.com

Week 12 Hitting Cheat Sheet

BeeZee — Sun, 19 Jun 2011 17:55:03 +0000

The idea behind this fantasy baseball cheat sheet for hitters is that each reader can get an idea of who the hottest hitters are at each position over the last 14 days. The players ranked below are also available in at least 25% of fantasy baseball leagues, according to Yahoo! Therefore, if you have issues at a position listed below, you know you have at least a 1 in 4 chance of getting the top guy on each week. Have fun making your lineup adjustments accordingly.

After some thoughtful consideration, we’ve put together a hitter cheat sheet for fantasy baseball 2011 – week 12. To help make your decision making even easier, we’ve included 5×5 statistical data over the past 14 days, too. Stats are updated through games on June 19.

You will find our exclusive fantasy baseball week 12 hitter rankings after the jump.

Week 10 Catcher Fantasy Baseball Rankings:

Miguel Olivo, Seattle Mariners: .149 batting average / 5 home runs / 11 runs batted in / 6 runs scored / 0 stolen bases
Jason Varitek, Boston Red Sox: .250 AVG / 1 HR / 6 RBI / 7 R / 0 steals
Wilson Ramos, Washington Nationals: .278 / 2 / 5 / 5 / 0

Week 7 First Base Fantasy Baseball Rankings:

Michael Morse, Washington Nationals: .333 / 6 / 16 / 13 / 1
Todd Helton, Colorado Rockies: .364 / 2 / 6 / 10 / 0
Carlos Lee, Houston Astros: .347 / 1 / 8 / 5 / 1

Week 7 Second Base Fantasy Baseball Rankings:

Danny Espinoza, Washington Nationals: .298 / 2 / 8 / 6 / 4
Scott Sizemore, Oakland A’s: .387 / 1 / 6 / 7 / 0
Ty Wigginton, Colorado Rockies: .298 / 1 / 7 / 7 / 1

Week 7 Shortstop Fantasy Baseball Rankings:

Alcides Escobar, Kansas City Royals: .447 / 0 / 5 / 10 / 7
J.J. Hardy, Baltimore Orioles: .320 / 3 / 7 / 8 / 0
Dee Gordon, Los Angeles Dodgers: .326 / 0 / 1 / 8 / 4

Week 7 Third Base Fantasy Baseball Rankings:

Mark Reynolds, Baltimore Orioles: .297 / 4 / 7 / 8 / 1
Chipper Jones, Atlanta Braves: .324 / 2 / 8 / 6 / 1
Sizemore, Oakland: .387 / 1 / 6 / 7 / 0

Week 7 Outfielder Fantasy Baseball Rankings:

Morse, Nationals: .333 / 6 / 16 / 13 / 1
Brennan Boesch, Detroit Tigers: .379 / 4 / 10 / 12 / 0
Angel Pagan, New York Mets: .376 / 1 / 10 / 7 / 5

Week 12 Two Start Pitchers

BeeZee — Sun, 19 Jun 2011 17:21:24 +0000

Are you two-start pitcher streaming? If not, you’re likely missing out on a great opportunity to increase your weekly strikeout total, win total, log more innings pitched, and potentially lower your team ERA and WHIP in head to head leagues that allow daily lineup changes.

Some leagues don’t allow such activity by limiting the number of player adds you can make each week. However, if you can find a loophole in your league settings and add/drop pitchers all season long – you’re going to have a great chance to win the whole thing come September!

For the fourth consecutive season, we will be tracking two start pitchers to make sure you always win your pitching categories. That way, if you consistently lose strikeouts each week – you can find someone who can help you in that category in a double capacity right away.

Fantasy Baseball Dugout’s exclusive two start pitcher rankings for Fantasy Baseball Week 12 start after the jump!

2011 Week 12 Fantasy Baseball Two Start Pitcher Rankings

Below you will find each projected two start pitcher for fantasy baseball week 10 broken down into four categories – must start, would start, could start, and don’t start.

Must Start Two Start Pitchers:

Josh Beckett, Boston Red Sox
Johnny Cueto, Cincinnati Reds
Roy Halladay, Philadelphia Phillies
Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers
Ricky Romero, Toronto Blue Jays
Jered Weaver, Los Angeles Angels

Would Start Two Start Pitchers:

Jake Arrieta, Baltimore Orioles
Madison Bumgarner, San Francisco Giants
Doug Fister, Seattle Mariners
Gavin Floyd, Chicago White Sox
Tim Hudson, Atlanta Braves
Mat Latos, San Diego Padres
Carl Pavano, Minnesota Twins
Anibal Sanchez, Florida Marlins

Could Start Two Start Pitchers:

Fausto Carmona, Cleveland Indians
Dillon Gee, Texas Rangers
Derek Holland, Texas Rangers
Kyle McClellan, St. Louis Cardinals
Charlie Morton, Pittsburgh Pirates
Ivan Nova, New York Yankees
Brad Penny, Detroit Tigers
Carlos Zambrano, Chicago Cubs

Don’t Start Two Start Pitchers:

J.A. Happ, Houston Astros
Livan Hernandez, Washington Nationals
Luke Hochevar, Kansas City Royals
Chris Narveson, Milwaukee Brewers
Juan Nicasio, Colorado Rockies
Jeff Niemann, Tampa Bay Rays
Josh Outman, Oakland A’s
Joe Saunders, Arizona Diamondbacks

Fantasy Baseball Trading Tips

ballparkbob34 — Sat, 18 Jun 2011 13:56:34 +0000

Ramirez's stock is falling; time to buy.

It’s the time of year when teams are starting to get locked into positions at the top of the league, middle of the pack, or the cellar dwellers. Now is the time to start making trade offers while managers still have hope to improve their teams.

Here are some fantasy baseball trading tips to consider.

TRADE WITH A TEAM AT THE BOTTOM OF THE LEAGUE — A team at the bottom of the league is more desperate whereas one at the top is going to ride things out unless he gets an offer he can’t refuse.
TRADE HIGH, BUY LOW — Sounds simple, but it’s just like making an investment. There is probably no better time to buy real estate than now, but still nobody is buying it. Notice how everybody wants to buy stocks when the market is at an all-time high. Look now to trade for a guy like Hanley Ramirez who is having an awful year; he will likely be de-valued by his frustrated owner.
TRADE EARLY FOR QUALITY STATS; TRADE LATE FOR QUANTITY STATS — Up until the All Star Break, it’s best to trade for quality stats like ERA, WHIP, and Batting Average. Late in the year, a trade for a strong quality guy won’t payoff as much.
TRY TO MOVE UP IN CATEGORIES WHERE YOU CAN BUMP DOWN THE TEAM AHEAD OF YOU — Sounds simple right, but its like a 2 point gain if you can trade for a player who will help you both gain a point and knock the guy ahead of you down a point. Its the NHL version of a “4 point game.”
LOOK FOR PRAISE IN THE DRAFT — During the draft, inevitably some manager will say “good pick” after a selection. This likely means that this player was who he had his eye on for the next round. Take note of this and offer this player to the manager during the season.
OFFER LOCAL PLAYER AND FAVORITE PLAYERS — In most leagues, local players are over-valued. Managers like to have their favorite players on their fantasy teams so offer those players in a trade and you are likely to get increased value.
USE THE PHONE — I know this tip is counter-intuitive to teens and 20-somethings, but you can always negotiate better in person or on the phone than on an email or text message. Only then, can you read a person’s emotion when considering a trade.
IMPROVE ANOTHER TEAM — Fantasy managers are not idiots and they won’t make a stupid deal. You need to offer them value that will help that team. Just don’t offer value to the team that is right behind you in the standings.
GET A SECOND OPINION — If your doctor recommended you get surgery, you’d likely get a second opinion. Use the experts. Drop us an email and we’ll give you our advice.
CHECK ON THE HEALTH OF THE PLAYER — Even minor injuries put players on the DL today. Check all of the available injury sites and check Twitter to see if there is a recent or nagging injury that may put your player on the DL.
MAKE A COUNTER OFFER — If you get a trade offer that doesn’t appeal to you, don’t just say “no thanks.” A first offer is just that; its an interest feeler. Make a counter-offer.
YOU WILL GET MORE IN SEVERAL SMALL TRADES THAN ONE BIG ONE — Pulling off the blockbuster deal is tough. Consider making several smaller trades instead of one big one.
PLAY THE TRADE IN KEEPER LEAGUES — If you are competing for the title this year, consider trading the rights to Stephen Strasburg to the team at the bottom of the league who is already looking to next season.

Week 11 Two Start Pitchers

BeeZee — Mon, 13 Jun 2011 03:20:29 +0000

For the fourth consecutive season, we will be tracking two start pitchers to make sure you always win your pitching categories. That way, if you’re still waiting for Wandy Rodriguez to get back into the rotation – you can add someone who can help you right away.

Fantasy Baseball Dugout’s exclusive two start pitcher rankings for Fantasy Baseball Week 11 start after the jump!

2011 Week 11 Fantasy Baseball Two Start Pitcher Rankings