Michael Pineda to the Yankees: Fantasy Analysis

In getting traded to the New York Yankees, Miguel Pineda immediately gets thrown into a spotlight/pressure cooker situation. He’s projecting right now as no. 2 in the Yankees rotation behind CC Sabathia — so you know he will be in line for some wins if he can keep it consistent. After his All-Star start to the 2011 season – he struggled with getting wins down the stretch.

Obviously, wins aren’t as important in fantasy baseball as they are in real life. This is one of the great inaccuracies of fantasy baseball, but one of the biggest reasons great pitchers on bad teams still have a lot of value (see Hernandez, Felix circa 2010). As we start projecting player rankings for the 2012 draft season, look for Pineda to be a top 25 starting pitcher. It would seem that Pineda could be one of the biggest draft day values in fantasy baseball 2012 – and he should be a solid no. 2 in fantasy baseball, too.

For 2012 fantasy baseball analysis of Jesus Montero,

Jesus Montero to the Mariners: Fantasy Analysis

After what seemed to be years and years of waiting, Jesus Montero can FINALLY become a starting catcher. Ironically, incumbent Yankees catcher Jorge Posada finally retired this week.

The Mariners youth movement was hurt by the loss of Pineda, but they now have a great core of players who are all under 25. King Felix obviously is now the crown jewel of their pitching staff. Montero, first baseman Justin Smoak, second baseman Dustin Ackley, third baseman Kyle Seager, and left fielder Mike Carp are all 25 or under.

While he projects on the Mariners depth chart as a DH, Montero will retain eligibility at catcher. Because of his availability as a catcher, he becomes an instant top 10 catcher in fantasy baseball simply based on how his 2011 production projects over 162 games. After about 9 catchers in fantasy baseball, the value drops significantly – especially in terms of power numbers. Check out our top 25 catcher rankings for 2012 to see who’s ahead – and behind – of Montero in our rankings.

Finding a sleeper at catcher is probably the toughest position to acquire a hidden gem.  That’s because catchers are more injury prone, take more time off, and, quite frankly, they usually don’t hit all that well in the first place.

Here are our 2012 fantasy baseball sleepers at the catcher position.

2012 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers — Catchers 

RANSOM: It won't cost you as much to pick up Wilson Ramos as our top catcher sleeper for 2012.

1.  Wilson Ramos, Nationals — Wilson Ramos is best known as the guy who got kidnapped in Venezuela this off-season before a daring rescue saved him.  But, he may be quite more well-known in 2012 now that Pudge Rodriguez is gone.  The 24-year-old’s ability to hit for power and average makes him an enticing sleeper for 2012.  In just 389 at bats, Ramos hit .267 with 15 homers, 52 RBIs and 48 runs scored.  He will not be pushed by backup Jesus Flores and should get the vast majority of the playing time.  Based on his 2011 season, Ramos is capable of a .270 year with 20 home runs and 65 RBI in an improved Nationals lineup.

2.  Salvador Perez, Royals – Royals rookie catcher Salvador Perez hit .331 with three homers, 21 RBIs and 20 runs scored in 148 at-bats during the 2011 season.  Manager Ned Yost loves this young backstop and has already said that he will be the team’s No. 1 catcher at the start of 2012. While he may not hit .300 over a full season, there is plenty of potential here on a team that is stacked with young talent.  While he won’t be able to match his .331 average in 158 at bats in 2011, his defense will keep him in the game.  His POP times are said to be amazing and he threw out 42% of all base runners in his minor league career.

3.  Willon Rosario, Rockies — Willon Rosario picked up 54 at bats last year for the Rockies and hit 3 home runs.  His minor league stats in Double-A were .272/21/48/1.  Rosario would likely have spent 2012 at the Triple-A level, but he is forced into duty since Eiliezer Alfonso picked up a second PED violation and received a 100 game suspension last September.  Bill James projects Rosario at 250 at bats and .246/13/29/1 for 2012.  Ramon Hernandez is the official starter, but he hasn’t played in more than 97 games the past three seasons for the Reds.  Hence, Rosario will get his starts.

4.  Nick Hundley, Padres — If Nick Hundley can ever stay healthy, he could put together some great numbers.  Hundley hit .222 in the first half of the season, but he got healthy in August and hit .367 with six homers in the second half. He’s just .255 lifetime, but if he could put together a complete season without injury, he just might be an 18 homer guy, even in Petco Park.  That’s not out of the question given that he’s only 28-years-old.  If you can put an extra catcher on your bench, you may be able to ride Hundley until he inevitably gets hurt again.

5.  Ryan Hanigan, Reds — Pairing Ryan Hanigan with Devin Mesoraco on your fantasy team is a nice handcuff situation for the catching position in deep National League only leagues.  Hanigan is .275 lifetime and will finely be the main man behind the dish for the Reds since Ramon Hernandez gone.  Hanigan was .267/6/31/0 last year.  Watch this situation closely in Spring Training and you will have your answer.

POINTS: Devin Mesoraco could score you a lot of them in 2012.

6. Devin Mesoraco, Reds — With Ramon Hernandez gone to Colorado, Devin Mesoraco will likely share the catching duties with Ryan Hannigan who has backed up Hernandez for the past three seasons.  Mesoraco’s minor league stats were .289/15/71/1 in 120 games with Louisville last year.  He hit 2 homeruns as a late season call-up in just 50 at bats.  In 2010, he hit 26 homers.  Mesoraco was the 2007 Pennsylvania Gatorade Player of the Year while playing at Punxsutawney High School.  Hannigan is a decent hitter, but our projection is that Mesoraco will ultimately get more of the playing time as the season progresses.  Mesoraco could be a .260 hitter with 15 homers for the Reds in 2012.  Hannigan and Mesoraco make a nice handcuff play in 2012.

7.  Kurt Suzuki, Athletics — Kurt Suzuki has been the Athletics starting catcher for four years.  Last year, he put up typical catcher numbers — .237/14/44/2.  So, why is he a sleeper?  With Josh Willingham and Hideki Matsui gone, Suzuki will move up in the lineup and get more RBI opportunities.  Suzuki had similar numbers in 2010 when he was hitting higher in the lineup and knocked in 71 RBI.

8.  Chris Iannetta, Angels — If you don’t worry too much about hurting your batting average and like to get a little pop from the catcher position, then Chris Iannetta is your guy.  Iannetta has some proven pop and despite leaving Coors Field for Anaheim, we still like him.  That’s because we don’t think much of Bobby Wilson and Hank Conger taking much playing time from him.  He should get over 400 at bats in Anaheim, thus keeping a 15 home run season alive despite leaving cozy Coors Field.

9.  A.J. Ellis, Dodgers — A.J. Ellis will be the starting catcher for the Dodgers this year.  His backup will be 36-year-old Matt Treanor who has appeared on our site mostly because of his marriage to beach volleyball star and Baseball’s Hottest Wives finalist Misty-May Treanor.  Ellis hit .304 in the minors last year, but he only went deep twice and doesn’t have a lot of home run power as he best season in the minors was just 8 long balls and that was at the Single-A level.  Ellis was .271/2/16/0 in limited late season duty for LA.  He’s not going to put up great power or RBI stats, but he’ll get significant at bats for you and appears that he won’t kill you in the batting average department.  Ellis has a good eye and walks a lot so if you use on base percentage in your league, his value is increased.  He’s a decent backup catcher selection in National League only drafts.

10. Tyler Flowers, White Sox — If Chicago falls out of the race early, Tyler Flowers may get more of a chance to prove himself.  In 110 at bats last year, Flowers was .209/5/16/0.  With A.J. Pierzynski becoming a free agent at the end of the season, Flowers may get some playing time at catcher or at designated hitter if Adam Dunn is as bad as he was last year.  Still, there’s likely no reason to draft Flowers as he’ll likely be available on the waiver wire for most of the season unless Pierzynski unexpectedly goes down.

11. Taylor Teagarden, Orioles — Taylor Teagarden has been a top prospect for the Rangers for four seasons, but hasn’t received much of a chance.  A career .262 hitter in the Minors, Teagarden has a solid arm and great makeup, and he will take the place of Craig Tatum, whom the Orioles lost on waivers to the Astros earlier this offseason.  Manager Buck Showalter has indicated that he’d like to give Matt Wieters more time off so Teagarden, embedded as the clear #2 catcher, will get a chance to start on occasion.  Given his lifetime .220 mark, it won’t be necessary to draft Teagarden; he’ll be available on your waiver wire.

Like this post?  Get more fantasy baseball tips and advice to win your fantasy baseball league this year by following BallparkBob on Twitter @BobBentz.

THE MASK: Rod Barajas' home run power masks his low batting average and durability.

Barajas has never been one to hit for much average.  Barajas hit .230 in 2011 with the Dodgers and has a career mark of .238.  But, he does bring some power to the game.  In 2011, Barajas belted 16 home runs in just 336 at bats for Los Angeles; that was the 11th highest total in the MLB among catchers.  In fact, Barajas has had double-digit home run totals in 7 of his last 8 years with the only exception begin his 2007 season with the Phillies when he was injured for most of the season.

With Ryan Doumit and Chris Snyder gone, Barajas will get the majority of the playing time behind the dish.  That is, if he can stay healthy.  Barajas has started 100 or more games only once in the past 6 seasons and at age 36, he’s going to need some time off in 2012.  Barajas has a $4 million deal for 2012 and a $3.25 option for the 2013 season.  He’ll hold down the catcher’s spot in Pittsburgh until prospect Tony Sanchez is ready to make his full-time debut for the Pirates.

2012 Fantasy Baseball Projection: Rod Barajas — Rod Barajas is never going to put up a good average or on-base percentage, but he’s a reliable producer of the long ball.  With more starts in Pittsburgh and a more friendly home run park, Rod Barajas is a possible 18 home run and 60 RBI guy in 2012. That’s good enough to make him a reliable second catcher in mixed leagues and a second tier draft in National League only leagues.

Jay Bruce, Cincinnati Reds

1. Jay Bruce was the NL Player of the month in May hitting 12 HR with 33 RBI. In the other 3 months combined he has 9 HR 24 RBI. 

2. CC Sabathia has been on a roll winning 8 of 9 starts from 6/14-7/26. In his last 7 starts he has allowed only 5 ER. He has done it before. During the 2010 season from 6/3-7/22 he won 9 of 10 starts. The big fella cranks it up a notch once the calendar turns June.

3. In 2010 While Playing in San Diego, 1B Adrian Gonzalez had 118 At bats the entire season with runners in scoring position(RISP) batting .407 with 69 RBI. As of July 26th with the Boston Red Sox this season he already has 130 at bats with RISP driving in 63 Runs while hitting .362. Gonzalez is on pace to have 208 at bats with RISP this year and he is currently the MLB leader in RBI’s. 

4. Reds OF Drew Stubbs has 135 Strikeouts in 401 official at bats. Stubbs is the major league leader in strikeouts so far in 2011. From June 26th to July 20th Stubbs had zero HR, Zero RBI, and 1 SB.

5. Curtis Granderson has been on quite a roll this season. He figured out how to hit Left Handed Pitching. In 2010 Granderson hit .234/.292/.354 with 4 HR and 12 RBI off left handed pitching. His 2011 Season to date Granderson against LHP? .269/.341/.622.  The 317 basis point increase in OPS has produced 11 HR & 30 RBI.

6. DH Adam Dunn has been dreadful this year. How bad is it? Dunn has more walks (51) than base hits (48). He has scored 28 Runs on the season (he averaged 82 runs the past three years). Dunn is 2-68 off LHP this year with 31 K’s.

7. Jered Weaver has been dominant this season. In 22 starts this season Weaver has not pitched fewer than 6.0 innings in any start, has thrown over 100 pitches in each of the 22 starts, and has allowed either one or no earned runs in 14 of those 22 starts.

8. Want to know why the Pirates are still in the hunt for the post season?  Pitching.  During the month of July Pittsburgh’s top three starters have been outstanding. Their ERA’s – James McDonald (1.90), Jeff Karstens (1.61), & Paul Maholm (3.65). For comparison the Philadelphia Phillies big three starters have July ERA’s as follows: Roy Halladay (3.21), Cole Hamels (3.49), & Cliff Lee (4.97). 

9. Justin Masterson just keeps getting better for the Tribe. His April ERA was 2.18, May 3.79, June 2.78, and so far in July 1.43. Masterson, long known for a bit of wildness, has started throwing strikes. He has not walked more than 2 hitters in any of his last seven games started.

10. Two Cubs are going in the opposite directions. OF Alfonso Soriano ended April with 10 HR and 20 RBI. Since May 1st he has a total of 5 HR and 23 RBI. Cubs 3B Aramis Ramirez first two months was brutal. He ended May with a YTD total of 2 HR and 19 RBI. Since June 1st it is a much different story – 17 HR and 43 RBI.

11.  Who is the #1 scorer in fantasy baseball over the last 30 days?  None other than superstar…..Errrrrr……..I mean utility man Emilio Bonafacio of the Florida Marlins who has a 26 game hitting streak.  During the streak he has 19 SB’s, batting .380, scored 25 runs, and posted a .480 OBP.  The amazing part is he is still not owned in 15% of all leagues. 

12.  As Fantasy Baseball Dugout pointed out this week, Vance Worley is the current statistical ace of the Phillies.  If you don’t believe me check out these numbers.  He is 7-0 in his last seven starts; he has a .872 WHIP, and has only allowed 6 ER’s in that time frame (47 innings).   The fascinating part about Worley is that in 2010 between AA and AAA he posted pedestrian numbers in the minors but was a late season call up and went 1-1 with a 1.38 ERA in five appearances.   Though he has been mentioned in trade rumors recently Charlie Manuel has come out and said that this kid isn’t going anywhere. 

13.  The Fantasy Baseball Scholars would like to congratulate Dan Uggla for finally getting over the Mendoza line after 60 games being below it.  We don’t know what’s more impressive, the fact he was below .200 for 60 games or the fact it took an 18-game hitting streak to get him over it. 

14.  The often-criticized Mark Buerhle has made 15 consecutive starts giving up 3 ER’s or fewer.   While we still don’t recommend this Animal Rights Activist who loves to hunt deer we thought we would give him credit when it’s deserved.

15.  Hanley Ramirez is starting to turn it on and fantasy owners around the world are rejoicing.  In his last 28 games he has a .421 OBP, hit 5 HR’s, driven in 22 runs, and has stolen 4 bases.   While those numbers aren’t striking, consider he had 6 HR’s, 14 SB’s, and 23 RBI’s in his first 58 games this season. 

16.  We found it interesting that speedster BJ Upton hit his first triple of the season this week.  He is now tied with fellow speed demons Kevin Youkilis, Chipper Jones, Yadier Molina, Pablo Sandoval, John Buck, and the smooth strider Prince Fielder.   We would also like to point out that the hefty Benji Molina had a triple last season and as Mitch Williams alluded to “The last time he had a triple I’m pretty sure it had cheese on it”.  

17.  In light of Carlos Beltran’s trade to the Giants we thought we would point out that he has exactly zero home runs in 22 games played at SBC Park.  It sounds like he will fit in nicely with the rest of the Giants lineup from afar but then again we could see a 2004 Beltran who ignited a fire in Houston and led them to the NLCS.  

18.   This is not the reason we had Joe Mauer as the #4 ranked catcher going into this season but when the former batting champ swings on an 0-2 count he is batting .034 (1-29).  Just so you know, for his career he is a .251 hitter when swinging on 0-2.  Another side note is Joe Mauer is averaging a HR every 166 at bats this season.  Joe Mauer is a great player but is one of the most overrated fantasy baseball players.  

19.  The key to getting Jose Bautista out?  Get ahead in the count.  When he hits while ahead in the count this year he has 17 HR’s, 39 RBI’s, a .607 OBP, and a .392 average.   We know it’s easier said than done but on the flip-side he only has 6 HR’s, 13 RBI’s, a .292 OBP, and a .250 average when the pitcher is ahead in the count when he hits. 

20.  David Wright came back this week so we thought we would take a look at his second half numbers for his career to see what to expect from a fantasy standpoint going forward. 

1st half home runs- 89

2nd half home runs- 88

1st half OBP-  .382

2nd half OBP-  .382

That is not a misprint. 

21.  Think Jacoby Ellsbury is important to Boston?  In their wins he has posted a .428 OBP and in their losses he has posted a .297 OBP.  Ellsbury is the catalyst for this offense and is great at setting the table for the league’s most potent offense. 

We hope you enjoyed the material this week.  Once again, much thanks to Fantasy Baseball Dugout for sharing our thoughts on fantasy baseball.    

The Scholars,

Ryan Jones and Tim Lander

Fantasybaseballscholars.com

Jemile Weeks likely won best hair in high school.

Mike Napoli, Catcher, Rangers — Napoli has been on the shelf with a strained oblique since June 11.  He’ll be eased back into the lineup this week beginning on Monday against the Orioles after a rehab assignment at Round Rock.  Napoli belted 26 homeruns last year for the Angels, but thus far this season, he’s hitting just .221 with 10 homers.  Nevertheless, at a weak catcher position, Napoli is a good choice in nearly all leagues.  Napoli also qualifies as a first baseman.

Jorge Posada, Designated Hitter, Yankees — After a terrible start, Hip Hip Jorge hit .391 in June.  That brings Posada up to .240 with 9 homers and 27 RBI on the year.  Not great numbers for a DH, but remember that Posada still qualifies as a catcher even though the 39-year-old has left his catchers mitt at home this year.  Wife Laura Posada is also hoping to remain an active member of the Fantasy Baseball Dugout’s Baseball’s Hottest Wives contest for 2011.  Look to see if she makes the Sweet 16 next week.

Carlos Pena, First Base, Cubs — Pena is a streak hitter and he’s on an incredible streak right now with 8 homeruns in his past 12 games.  While he may be at the end of the streak, he faces the Pirates and Nationals this week so that streak just might continue.

Jemile Weeks, Second Base, A’s — With the trade of Mark Ellis to the Rockies, the second base job is now all Weeks.  In 21 starts, he’s hitting .309, but we also like his 6 stolen bases.  As a rookie, he’ll have his ups and downs, but his defensive highlights have been all over ESPN so that should keep him in the lineup during his down times.

Dustin Ackley, Second Base, Mariners — Dustin Ackley is the real deal as he was the second overall pick behind Stephen Strasburg in the 2009 draft.  He’s hitting .300 thus far this year with 2 homers in his first 40 AB’s.  We don’t expect Ackley to be a .300 hitter this year, but he is a viable option at a relatively weak position.  Ackley missed Friday’s game due to bruised ribs and is said to be 50-50 for Saturday.

David Freese, Third Base, Cardinals — Freese has been on the DL for two months and made his return this week.  Freese is a lifetime .316 hitter and is hitting .361 on the year this season.  Freese has been a very good performer in his 2+ Major League seasons, but he’s been injury prone.  He said the time off to heal his broken hand also gave him time to heal his surgically-repaired ankles.  With both hand and ankle working well, it could be a banner second half of the year for Freese.

J.J. Hardy, Shortstop, Orioles — We chose J.J. Hardy as the Fantasy Baseball Sleeper of the Year in the preseason and Hardy is starting to make us look like we knew what we were talking about.  In his last 100 AB’s, he’s hitting .370 with 9 homeruns.

Pablo Sandoval, Third Base, Giants — Panda is just back from the DL and has a 10 game hitting streak.  He’s a much better hitter at home (.330 career) than on the road and the Giants are at home until the All Star Break.  It might be a good time to bring the Panda back up.

Seth Smith, Outfield, Rockies — Manager Jim Tracy said that the left-handed hitting Smith will start all three games this week against lefties instead of Ryan Spillborghs.  That’s good news for fantasy baseball managers that own Smith as he’s hitting .305 with 8 HR’s, 35 RBI, and 3 stolen bases on the year.

Nick Markakis, Outfield, Orioles — Markakis has an 18-game hitting streak.  During this period, Markakis has hit .415.  He can help you with an occasional homerun and stolen base as well.

KISSING COUSINS: Scott Cousins bowls over Buster Posey.

by BallparkBob

If you have Buster Posey on your fantasy baseball team, you made a wise choice at the beginning of the season during your draft.  You chose a rising star who proved that he was one of the premiere backstops in the Majors last year at a position that is devoid of a tremendous amount of fantasy baseball talent.

But, today, you sit with a high draft choice player with a broken ankle and three torn ligaments in his left leg.  It was not from a cheap shot at the hands of the Marlins’ Scott Cousins.  It was a legitimate baseball play that is entirely permissable under the rules of the game.

But, are those rules of the game still the right rules?  Bowling over the catcher like duckpins has been illegal in amateur baseball for many years.  But, now that a popular player is out for the season, it is bringing up questions about whether the Rules Committee should change the rules of the game that have been in place since Abner Doubleday didn’t invent it.

I am a baseball traditionalist so you may be surprised by my answer.  The answer is yes; the Rules Committee should look at changing the rules to prevent such injuries.  If, for no other reason than that Buster Posey is a big draw at the ballpark and now he’s gone for the season.  Posey’s absence will surely hurt the pocketbooks of the owners and ultimately the players.  The NFL knows this so it has put in rules to help prevent injuries to its premiere fan draws–the quarterbacks.

Now, don’t give me the answer that that’s how it’s always been.  No, its not.  Baseball has added wise safety rules over the years.  Wearing a batting helmet is one.  Not using steroids is a pretty good idea if you want to fit into your New Era cap.  Putting up protection in front of the dugouts is another.  A ban against chewing tobacco would be a wise one to make as well.  Protecting catchers from collissions like the one that put down Posey, or Roy Fosse, or Carlos Santana, or lesser known players like the Marlins backup backstop Brett Hayes is a rule change that is needed.

But, it has to be fair too.  As an amateur baseball coach, I continue to be frustrated by the avoid contact rule.  The umpires interpretation of the no contact rule is fine, but they seem to forget that there also is a rule that prevents the catcher from blocking home plate when he doesn’t have the ball.  Hence, the runner is forced to slide into a catcher and never reach home plate.  Or, try a difficult manuever to slide around the catcher and hope to reach the plate with a hand.  It’s not fair the way the rule is now.

So, along with an avoid contact rule, there has to be enforcement of the rule that prevents a catcher, or any fielder, from blocking a base or plate without possession of the ball.

When the Major League Rules Committee convenes this off-season, I hope they will consider avoiding football like collissions at home plate between runner and catcher.

It will make a lot of future Buster Posey fantasy baseball owners happy too.

Now that he'll be playing every day, we expect the Padres' Rob Johnson to get the hang of putting on his equipment.

In fantasy football, there is a concept called “handcuffing” and no we are not talking about NFL players that have broken the law.  Handcuffing in fantasy football is the process of drafting a team’s backup along with the starter at the same position.  This is often done with injury prone positions in fantasy football such as running back or quarterback.

Does handcuffing make much sense in baseball?  Not at most positions, but in deep leagues, handcuffing is a good idea.  If you have to have a backup catcher on your squad, it’s a good idea to have two catchers on the same team.

Take the Padres for example.  If you have Nick Hundley on your team, you now have a player that is on the 15-day disabled list.  So, wouldn’t it be nice if you had Rob Johnson on your minor league roster?  Johnson is going to be the every day catcher with Hundley nursing a strained muscle on his right side.  Johnson’s new backup is Kyle Phillips who was just called up from Double-A San Antonio.  Phillips was hitting .316 with two homers and 15 RBIs in 19 games at San Antonio.

It might also make sense to use the fantasy football technique of handcuffing with closers, but it’s often not as clear cut as to whom is waiting in the wings to be the closer if the main 9th inning man blows too many.  But, with catchers, it’s kind of obvious.

While others are compiling lists of the best available players, you will be crafting a team with the goal of winning categories. It’s simple marginal value. Take the parameters your are forced to accept in your league rules and find where that creates value. The auction dollar values below are based on projections for a 5X5 12 team mixed rotisserie league. This isn’t a guess of how much players will go for, but rather our idea of how much your budget they’ll be worth for the 2011 season.

2011 Catchers Rankings

“He looked like this little kid who got left at a bus station by his parents. You know why? Because he had to catch Hoyt Wilhelm’s knuckleball. Five long years. The worst gig in baseball. It was like trying to catch a greased pig with wings. I mean, he even told a reporter once, ‘Wilhelm nearly ruined me.’ Gus Triandos. Big slow guy.”

- Thomas “Herc” Hauk

1) Joe Mauer- $28

Phil Hildreth: Mauer is in a class by himself here. Even if he doesn’t ever get his 2009 home run stroke back, he is going to hit third in an offense that has only trailed the Yankees and Red Sox in putting batters on base over the past three years.

Herman Obandol: Unfortunately, the Twins organization’s decision not to move the outfield fences is going to ensure that Mauer’s power swing won’t be back. He only hit one home run at Target Field last year. Still, Mauer is a difference maker, I think he can be taken in the late first round.

PH: From what I’ve seen it’s a pretty safe bet that he will still be there in the second round of even a 12 team league, but I agree that you can build a winning team around Mauer even though he won’t play 150 games and he’s an injury risk. Taking Mauer instead of even someone in the next tier of catchers allows for greater flexibility at other positions (think of it as banking an extra 30 avg points to use later on Adam Dunn or Michael Stanton).

HO: Are you really concerned about injury here? It comes down to this, when you spend big with money or draft picks you better come away with a player that helps you win something. Mauer is a piece that helps you win categories. Taking Mark Texiera or Adrian Gonzalez in the first round doesn’t put you ahead of the rest of the league, its just holding serve.

2) Carlos Santana – $23

3) Brian McCann – $21

4) Buster Posey – $21

5) Victor Martinez – $19

HO: This is where teams have tendency to overpay/overdraft players who aren’t going to move the needle very much. Everyone knows there are only five catchers that make you feel good and that’s going to inflate the price of the top five in an auction. That said, our projections seem to think Santana is the best of the bunch, do you agree?

PH: Not really. Santana is recovering from a pretty terrible knee injury in a pretty terrible offense. All of these four come with a fair amount of hype so I’m most likely going to wait for the next tier if i miss out on Mauer. Victor Martinez would scare me the most, yet I’ve seen some “experts” put him as the #1 catcher.

HO: I also think that Posey is going to be a value trap this year. Remember that he still hasn’t played a full season in the majors and his monthly splits show that his stats benefited from a monster July. This also might be a good time to alert everyone that Cody Ross and Edgar Renteria have no fantasy value despite all of the home runs they hit last October.

PH: So because we haven’t said anything about McCann yet, does that mean he’s the best value of this group. Nah probably not.

6) Kurt Suzuki – $10

7) Geovany Soto $10

Mike Napoli $10

9) Matt Wieters $9

PH: This is probably the sweet spot value wise for this position. I like Suzuki more than most because there is no way that he repeats his 2010 performance of seeing 20% of his flyballs caught as infield popups (worst in the league). His average should rise and he is one of the few catchers that plays almost everyday.

HO: I like Napoli here now that he has finally escaped the Mike Socia platoon and should see plenty at bats in the powerful Rangers lineup. Also we forget how young Wieters is. He may not be as bad as we remember him from last year and don’t sleep on my revamped Orioles lineup.

10) Jesus Montero $8

11) Russell Martin $7

PH: Clearly both of these guys can’t be worth this much. One of these guys is going to get the bulk of the at bats in the Yankee lineup. Currently, that means stay away until this position battle sorts itself out. If Jesus is the back stop he could be a 20+ HR guy; Martin’s value comes from a potential for be a sneaky soursneaky double digit steals if he gets the nod.

HO: I agree that you shouldn’t pay these prices but one of these guys is going to be the great value find at the catcher position so I’m going to take a flier on Montero if he comes cheap/late.

12) Ryan Doumit $5

13) Miguel Olivo $5

14) AJ Pierzynski $5

15) Jorge Posada $4

16) Miguel Montero $3

HO: This group has talent but is flawed either in age or playing time. In Posada’s case it’s both. Its frustrating that the the Pirates seem to like Chris Snyder more than Doumit. It’s actually reassuring to be on the opposite side of the Pirates front office though. Free Doumit!

PH: Montero’s competition for playing time is the training room, but I like him in short stints as a platoon play. I’ve noticed that Pierzynski is disappearing off many cheat sheets but he doesn’t really hurt your team anywhere at thats almost all you can ask from a #2 catcher.

17) Yadier Molina $2

18) John Buck $2

19) Chris Ianetta $2

20) Ramon Hernandez $2

PH: There isn’t much value in a backup catcher. You need one but the waiver wire will have virtually identical stats floating around. The only thing this group really offers is playing time and job security. Hey, making sure you get 162 games played at each position is a large part of racking up counting stats.

HO: I can’t bring myself to spend money/draft spots on a #2 catcher. When I need a second catcher I’ll deal with the waiver wire later. I’d rather take a speculative OF or starting pitcher. Unless of course Bryce Harper is still around…

21) JP Arenciabia $1

22) Carlos Ruiz $1

23) Josh Thole $1

24) Bryce Harper $1

HO: You know someone is going to take Bryce Harper. Best case scenario is a repeat of Buster Posey’s call up last year. That’s a pretty high upside so if you don’t have to give up much I say go for it.

PH: Arenciabia is getting some hype as a power hitter and I see him as a better speculative play for this year because, unlike Harper, he is going to at least start the year in the big leagues. Thole has shown that he can hit for average so he might be a useful plug in player at some point during the season during a hot streak. I’m not really sold on rookie catchers though. Posey and even Santana last year are exceptions to the norm, not a new normal.

Phil Hildreth is a Fantasy Baseball writer and lead writer for http://www.fantasybaseballu.com. For more great Fantasy Baseball advice, articles, stats, and news visit http://www.fantasybaseballu.com.

Follow Phil on Twitter @PhilHildreth

At 6'4", Jesus Montero's size is a concern behind the plate, but not at the plate.

At 6’4″ and 225 pounds, Jesus Montero looks nothing like Yogi Berra wearing pinstripes behind the plate.  That is, until he swings the bat.

Montero, the 21-year-old Venezuelan has hit .310 with 38 homers in the minors over the past two seasons.  That includes a rapid climb through Single-A ball where he hit .356 and a G-6 breeze through Double-A Trenton where he hit .317.  At Triple-A Scranton-Wilkes Barre last season, Montero hit .289 with 21 homers and 75 homers.  In 2010, Baseball America had Montero tabbed as the #4 top prospect in all of baseball and in 2011, he squats at #3 just ahead of Domonic Brown.

The catching situation in New York is an interesting one.  Long time backstop Jorge Posada, 40, was informed last November that he would give up the tools of ignorance this year and concentrate on being the DH.  Posada still has his catcher’s gear in Spring Training, but he may have to dust it off before taking an occasional stint behind the plate.

In the off-season, the Yankees acquired free agent catcher Russell Martin from the Dodgers.  Martin underwent knee surgery in December and has been plagued with injuries the past few seasons.  Moreover, Martin was once one of those rare catchers who could actually run and hit # 2 in the lineup.  Knee surgery has probably put an end to most of that.

That being said, the Yankees say that Martin enters the season as the starter in The Bronx and that Jesus Montero will compete with Francisco Cervelli and Austin Romine for the backup job.  Montero certainly has the advantage with the stick, but Cervelli and Romine are still stronger defensively and have more experience.  Needless to say, however, Montero clearly has the most upside.

“Pitchers are going to love throwing to that big target,” said Posada in describing his eventual successor.  ”But coming out of the crouch and blocking balls, you have to stay short and quick.”  Clearly, Montero’s size is an added bonus on the offensive side, but makes for some adjustments when a crouching catcher is 6’4″.

2011 Fantasy Baseball Projection: Jesus Montero — Usually, when there is a 21-year-old prospect, the obvious thing to do is to keep him down in the minors for more seasoning for the first two months of the season and then bring him up, but remember, this is the Yankees so they don’t really need to protect their pocketbooks as much as other teams.  This is an interesting situation to keep your eyes on during Spring Training to see where it all shakes out with Martin’s return and the development of the other players contending for the position.  That being said, Montero should be the regular Yankees catcher by mid-season. Anticipate Jesus Montero to put up some strong hitting numbers in his first season at .265/15/50/0 this year and for 2012, he could be a .275/20/70/0 guy if he wins the regular spot and continues to develop.

FANTASY BASEBALL DUGOUT UPDATE — Cervelli took a ball off of his foot on Wednesday in Spring Training and it is now being reported that he has fractured his left foot thus opening the door even more for Montero to start the season in Yankee pinstripes.