Jayson Werth is having quite an extraordinary postseason. He has now blasted 7 homeruns this postseason, including two last night in the 8-5 loss to the Yankees. Werth is now tied with Troy Glaus and B.J. Upton, and one homerun behind Barry Bonds and Carlos Beltran for tops on the list of homeruns hit in a single postseason.
With 11 career postseason homeruns, Werth is now one of the top 20 postseason homerun hitters of all time. While it’s going to take more than Werth hitting homeruns for the Phillies to repeat as World Series champions, the extraordinary postseason Werth is having brings about a common issue for fantasy baseball owners when draft time roles around:
How should fantasy owners evaluate postseason numbers when they are measuring player value in the following season?
To provide a simple answer, fantasy owners should not consider postseason numbers in their fantasy baseball draft rankings.
Why? Because unless I’m horribly mistaken, what a player does in the postseason has no bearing on how he produces during the regular season – when fantasy baseball championships are won.
Werth batted .268 with 36 homeruns, 99 RBI, 98 runs, and 20 steals during the regular season. In comparison to all OF-eligible players, Werth finished the season no. 8 overall. As a 20/20 player in back to back seasons, Werth definitely should garner high consideration on draft boards in 2010, especially over other 20/20 capable players like Nick Markakis and Carl Crawford.
However, if you are drafting Jayson Werth as your no. 1 outfielder in 2010, you might not be getting the value you expect. Remember B.J. Upton’s awesome 2008 postseason? He hit 7 homeruns for the Rays on their way to the World Series. His performance in the postseason also led to a bit of a hype machine in fantasy baseball circles, and he became overvalued coming into this year’s draft time. While Upton did steal 42 bases, he only batted .241 and only hit 11 homers. The numbers did not match his expectations.
Have fun watching Werth bash the ball around the Bank and the Yank during the rest of the World Series… but don’t let any of his postseason performance lead you to reach for Werth over outfielders like Ryan Braun, Jason Bay, and Matt Holliday.
If you do, you will be disappointed.