The Best Time To Sell Zack Greinke? NOW.
As of today’s posting, Zack Greinke of the Kansas City Royals is the no. 1 overall player in just about every fantasy baseball league format.
The righty is dominating hitters in 2009 and is the league’s only 6-game winner (still true – Roy Halladay now has 7 wins!). His 0.51 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, and 59 strikeouts in 53 innings have given Greinke owners a nice return on investment for a guy who was typically drafted in the 80′s of most fantasy drafts.
That said, everyone is trying to figure out if Greinke is “for real” in fantasy baseball. Sure, he’s a must start while he’s hot. But how long should Greinke owners keep this guy? Is he the closest comparison this season to what we saw from Cliff Lee, circa 2008?
Below are 5 reasons why you should sell Zach Greinke ASAP.
- His trade value will NEVER be higher. In the last 24 hours, CBS Sportsline fantasy baseball players have shipped Greinke in 1-for-1 trades for first round draft picks like Miguel Cabrera and Grady Sizemore.
- Many of you can probably trade Greinke right now for multiple players, a good reason to consider selling a player. In a 1-for-2 swap, expect returns like Roy Oswalt and Mark Teixeira, Aubrey Huff and Vernon Wells, or Carlos Beltran and Nick Johnson. Someone willing to trade you 1-for-3? How about a return of Josh Hamilton, Cliff Lee, and Zach Duke.
- Greinke is a pleasant weather pitcher. After starting 3-0 with a 1.25 ERA in April 2008, he fell to back to earth by June (7-4 / 3.25). In June and July, he went 3-5 with an ERA over 5.00. In September, he went 3-1 with 4 quality starts and an ERA around 3.00. It seems he can’t take the heat.
- He was especially roughed up in 2008 during starts against divisional rivals. Greinke’s 2008 ERA against the White Sox? 7.25 in 4 starts. Minnesota? 5.54 in 2 starts.
- You can never count on wins in fantasy baseball – judge your starters on strikeouts, earned runs, and WHIP. Wins are just gravy.
May 20th, 2009 at 10:17 am
Well said and points are right on the money.
Greinke, with all due respect, has a lifetime losing record, given up more hits than innings pitched in his career and has done so playing for a decent team with a above average fielders.
I cannot understand why the words Cy Young candidate is thrown around with Cliff Lee or CC Sabathia??? Please show Roy Halladay some credit for winning 20 with a below average team last year. If Halladay were given any decent run support last year – 27 wins would not have been out of the question. This year, he has had tremendous run support SO FAR and he is on pace to win between 30-35 games…but it is way to early to prorate. Perhaps by the Allstar game when Halladay has 17 wins, there may be a blurb that Greinke may have some competition for the Cy Young trophee.
In a one-game playoff to decide the pennant, you choose Cy Young award winner Halladay with 139 lifetime victories at the age of 32 or Zack Greinke – lifetime 41 wins and 46 losses at the age of 26? Duh?